A textbook development in a wyckoff reaccumualtion

capsule91 Updated   
Disclaimer... Interested, tracking, but not presently invested
not an investing/trading recommendation
minimum targets
long term channel with price action at support
acrysil volume candle chart..
after the supply line was broken a SOS was formed
here is the same chart with 52week simple ma, the red one is based on the high
the black on is based on the low...
the red MA was a constant resistance, post breakout ,it isnt anymore, and the black MA is now acting as a proper support, the last massive buying happened at that black MA... conclusion is , the character has changed as we have progressed along the trading range... sign of absorption... the bull campaign is about to start, although the negativity in the macros and the broader market sentiments, does worry me... may be the markup might be shorter than expected...
robust number growth with much needed reduction in receivables.... the long term debt is also in the downtrend.. the asset turn over ratio improving...
The technical possibilities of robust run of share price, looks achievable...
Management guides a topline growth of 20percent in the current fy and the ebitda margins to growth 3 percent..
Sternhagen though forms a miniscule portion yet, is expected to grow 3x in the topline..
Increase in resin prices in the lue of 2.5x over the past year, has been passed on to the customers in 30 to 40percent level, they expect to pass on the full rm price increase in the current fiscal..
3D concrete tiles is expected to be the joker in the pack... with pricing very close to the regular tiles at 100rs premium per sq feet, offering superior aesthetics...
debt equity ratio is going to be maintained at around 0.6..
CApacity utilization in the quartz sinks remains at 83% , in the SS sink at 60percent..
new products in the appliance trading business has been launched ..
globally ,market share of quartz sinks stands at 10percent, whichis projected to growth to 20percent , replacing the SS sinks..
At that face, the producers are only 4 in the world, with not much capacity additions in sight...
the demand supply gap is likely to be maintained and grow going forward, given the global consumption remains at least steady..
export to domestic market revenue to be maintained at 70 to 30percent mix..
capacity of the premium ss sink quadro, has been doubled...
No further equity infusion is in the plans, and with current asset base, achieving 300 to 500cr topline, from current 198cr topline is possible according to the management..
Inventory is expected to come down this year..
Advertising expense is also going to come down ...

overall, demand supply gap, niche 3d tile play targeting low cost consumers, lot more capacity to be utilized in the stainless steel sink segment coupled with steady demand, widening distribution network across geographies is the headline for the annual ending status...

Bullish on the longer term view... if the growth trajectory that has been outlined and ebitda margins if goes back to the previous level as guided by the management and maintenance of the current balance sheet , which is reasonable in my eyes, the technical targets outlines is very much achieve able..
looking at the monthly the retest of spring seems to be underway, the big red marubozu candle on terriblw volume, specifically designed for a shakeout of the weak hands... below is the yearly s1 support and the support of the trading range...

looking at the weekly.. the 100 week wilder moving average support in blue is again being tested, excellent place to accumulate, given when the fundamentals are due further tailwinds....
link to investor presentation during annual result concall..
from my blog, q4 concall and detailed /t/acrysil-kitchen-sinks/1060/42?u=capsu...
previous link might not be working..
added notes to concall update..
if the 125week wilder moving average with the yearly s1 support, cannot hold the price action, the downside is good amount...
a potential bullish butterfly will be in formation along with the potential reversal zone down beloe exactly matching the 200week wilder moving average level..

Added mor today, and will wait for the next course of events..
a dip dwn on the back of a bullish harmonic might spell a spring formation...

And it also is within the 50% and 62% of the previous wave...
Makes more sense...

That 386 odd level would be a very good place to do a massive lumpsome buy, which i am planning if at all comes, with a good margin of safety..
the pe ratio at that level will be 16.78 ..
currently at 21.67..
fundamental update..

25% capacity addition in quartz sinks..

details have been provided in this blogpost..

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