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Short

Thoughts on the Aussie this morning...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Wednesday’s segment. Further losses were seen going into London, consequently transporting the H4 candles down to the 0.77 handle, which, as you can see, held firm throughout the remainder of the day.

Whether or not 0.77 can bounce prices back up to 0.7743 (a broken Quasimodo line that’s positioned nearby mid-level resistance 0.7750 and daily resistance at 0.7740) is difficult to judge at this point. We say this simply because weekly price shows room to extend losses down to a trendline support etched from the high 0.7835, along with daily price also showing space to punch down to demand pegged at 0.7571-0.7623.

Suggestions: Should H4 price retest 0.7743, this would be a line we would consider shorting if a full or near-full-bodied bearish candle took shape. In the event that 0.77 fails to hold, nevertheless, the next downside target beyond this number can be seen at 0.7632: a H4 support level that’s positioned just ahead of the noted daily demand. Therefore, shorts on any retest of 0.77 could also be an option today.

Data points to consider: RBA Assist Gov . Debelle speaks at 8.45am; US unemployment claims at 1.30pm; US pending home sales m/m at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7743 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick). Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.77 and then look to trade any retest of this level seen thereafter (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form following the retest – preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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