- Fundamental Analysis: So what we have next week: - First quarter CPI of Australia on Tuesday - Durable Good Orders of US on Thursday The CPI data would play the key role, the momentum for the move of Aussie. Market expects it will rise to 3.2% from 2.7% which describes recent development of economy of Kangaroo country. I checked all economic data of Australia last three months, the CPI likely beats the forecast, but it could miss the forecast: I am not sure. The improvement by 0.5% to 3.2% from 2.7% is quite high; particularly in the context that commodity prices are falling down causing pressure on CPI. If the CPI beats the forecast, the Aussie would come back the uptrend to 0.95; on the contrary, if the CPI misses the forecast, A/U absolutely continues the correction, dump to 0.9230 because Durable Good Orders most likely would be positive and transfers the impact to A/U. After the data is released, there is still a lot of room for Short and Long position, so I don’t worry much; I will wait until the data is published, and hit the position. - Technical Analysis No much TA currently, I just see the trendl line in RSI is broken. If CPI is negative, the downtrend confirmative, and you confidently Short A/U to 0.9231
Thanks for the chart. I agree CPI is important.
Take into consideration the inflation correlation between New Zealand and Australia. It is a medium to strong correlation about. The most recent CPI data that came in last week for New Zealand was below expectations at 0.3 instead of 0.5.
Take into consideration the inflation correlation between New Zealand and Australia. It is a medium to strong correlation about. The most recent CPI data that came in last week for New Zealand was below expectations at 0.3 instead of 0.5.