AUDUSD_D

The AUD/USD pair appears to have completed a five-wave Elliott structure on the Daily timeframe, while a clear bearish divergence is visible on both the Daily and Weekly timeframes.
In addition, a bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern is forming on the Weekly chart, increasing the probability of a medium-term downside correction.
As long as price remains below the invalidation level, the market outlook stays bearish, and we expect a decline toward the following targets:

• 0.69229
• 0.68254
• 0.67055
  A confirmed breakdown below 0.70951 could provide a potential trigger for short positions.
  However, if price breaks and sustains above 0.72770, this bearish scenario will be invalidated.
  Fundamental Analysis (Related to Your Setup)
  From a fundamental perspective, several factors could support bearish pressure on AUD/USD in the coming weeks:
  * A stronger US Dollar driven by expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates from the Federal Reserve may continue to weigh on the Australian Dollar.
  * Weakness in global growth sentiment and slower demand from China — Australia’s largest trading partner — could negatively impact commodity-linked currencies such as AUD.
  * Declining risk appetite in global markets typically strengthens the USD while pressuring higher-beta currencies like AUD.
  * If commodity prices, especially iron ore and industrial metals, continue to soften, the Australian Dollar may face additional downside momentum.
  * Meanwhile, a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia compared with the Fed could further widen policy divergence in favor of the US Dollar.