UNDERDOG-29

BANK NIFTY COMPLEX CORRECTION WAVE COUNT

Short
NSE:BANKNIFTY   NIFTY BANK
Analysis from 20-12-2021 onwards.

We are seeing bounce in bank nifty post 20-12-2021 in the form of complex correction wxy.Before this we had impulsive move unfolding in 5 waves on the downside.Meaning post this complex correction we can again see impulsive decline in the form of wave 3 or wave c.

Right now we are seeing impulsive rise post wave x in pink,of which we are in wave 5 which itself got sub-divided in 5 waves,thereby taking a form of ending diagonal ,where internal structure of the waves is 3-3-3-3-3.Of this wave 5 ending diagonal ,4 waves are done and currently it seems like we are witnessing last push on the upside in the form of wave 5.Assuming this as an ending diagonal with wave 1 extent ion(longest)we can expect bank nifty to not cross 100% extention of wave 3 coming at 38500,as wave 3 was shorter then wave 1 meaning wave 5 cannot be longer then wave 3 in order for wave 3 to be not the shortest motive.

Personally i feel 38000-38300 is a range where this wave 5 of ending diagonal can end.Look for reversal sign in that area and short the market as move post ending diagonal is quite violent in nature and can take prices to wave 4 low's(36518).

Incase we see price reversing before reaching mentioned zone then one should wait for lower tl breach along with previous pivot low getting breached by the price in lesser time then it took to form.

I am assuming wave 4 of ending diagonal is over,however if we see price failing to close above 37650,then we can assume wave 4 is yet not completed.

Disclaimer:This are just my views on the index and position should not be build or exited on its basis,posting this just for my future reference.
Comment:
we are wave 5 of ending diagonal,tomorrow if we see bank nifty breaking 38100 in 1st hour then we can conclude that wave 5 has completed and going ahead we can see bank nifty retracing in the form of wave 2 or wave b of higher degree.Dont short unless 38100 is taken out and we have hourly candle close below 38100.Stop-loss for the trade would be recent pivot high (38400)unless we go higher from here.
Comment:
Updated count.

Post 5 wave impulsive down move from 41800-34000 we are seeing current bounce also taking impulsive form(which is rare)as wave b of zigzag can be double three but sub wave A of wave B itself has stretched till 61.8% of previous fall,meaning post this impulsive rise from 34000 to 38845(today's high)we can see bank nifty atleast coming back in the range of 37760-37000.Any hourly close below 38600 will end wave 5 of current impulsive rise from 34000-38845.One can short once we see hourly closing below 38600 with a stop-loss of 38850 for tgt of 37760-37000
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