PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 Mar 2023
March series is coming to a close tomorrow, but the options premium is already dead.
Only few strikes near the money has some more premiums to shed, all the other OTMs are well below the average rates to what we usually see on the penultimate day of expiry.
It also translates into very little movement expected tomorrow. Well today was an inside day - we did not even swing as much as yesterday. Yesterday was another range bound day too. So consecutive range bound days has taken the air off the PE & CE options.
BANKNIFTY
opened at 39545 gap up to yesterday's close but almost half-way to the last hour swing of yesterday. And then we started trading with no special emotion today.
We were stuck in a range of 39340 to 39560 till 15.20. There was one candle at 15.25 that just broke out of this range - but again not something that important too.
One of the reason of a flattish trade would be attributed to the
CNXFINANCE
expiry which is generating a lot of volumes now. The stock manipulations required to keep the Finnifty index range bound is active.
The only reason i haven't pursued trading on
CNXFINANCE
despite its similarity with banknifty was because of the HDFC-HDFCBK merger event. HDFC is the main contributor to Finnifty's weight outside of the 5 main bank thats supporting banknifty.
After the merger, both the index will have 85 to 90% correlation, the only difference being the scale to which its set to.
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Tomorrow's expiry may only become interesting if we have any news event in US or Europe markets today. Otherwise we are quite starting at a boring range bound trade tomorrow.
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The range bound trade continues in the 15mts TF. At present we do not have a directional bias until one of the support or resistance gets broken.
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1hr TF has not lost its bearish bias yet, according to me the next leg of lower low is in the making and probably its taking some time.
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On
BANKNIFTY
minds i made 2 posts today
"$BANKNIFTY need some triggers or news flow to break the range trade at present non-directional trade seems like working" at 10.10
and
"$BANKNIFTY option premiums are all dead ! not even a fake move today to fire up the premiums Finnifty is making an impact over last 4 expiries" at 13.59
Only few strikes near the money has some more premiums to shed, all the other OTMs are well below the average rates to what we usually see on the penultimate day of expiry.
It also translates into very little movement expected tomorrow. Well today was an inside day - we did not even swing as much as yesterday. Yesterday was another range bound day too. So consecutive range bound days has taken the air off the PE & CE options.
BANKNIFTY
opened at 39545 gap up to yesterday's close but almost half-way to the last hour swing of yesterday. And then we started trading with no special emotion today. We were stuck in a range of 39340 to 39560 till 15.20. There was one candle at 15.25 that just broke out of this range - but again not something that important too.
One of the reason of a flattish trade would be attributed to the
CNXFINANCE
expiry which is generating a lot of volumes now. The stock manipulations required to keep the Finnifty index range bound is active. The only reason i haven't pursued trading on
CNXFINANCE
despite its similarity with banknifty was because of the HDFC-HDFCBK merger event. HDFC is the main contributor to Finnifty's weight outside of the 5 main bank thats supporting banknifty. After the merger, both the index will have 85 to 90% correlation, the only difference being the scale to which its set to.
---
Tomorrow's expiry may only become interesting if we have any news event in US or Europe markets today. Otherwise we are quite starting at a boring range bound trade tomorrow.
---
The range bound trade continues in the 15mts TF. At present we do not have a directional bias until one of the support or resistance gets broken.
---
1hr TF has not lost its bearish bias yet, according to me the next leg of lower low is in the making and probably its taking some time.
---
On
BANKNIFTY
minds i made 2 posts today "$BANKNIFTY need some triggers or news flow to break the range trade at present non-directional trade seems like working" at 10.10
and
"$BANKNIFTY option premiums are all dead ! not even a fake move today to fire up the premiums Finnifty is making an impact over last 4 expiries" at 13.59
