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Hi, first about today's move in Bank Nifty (BNF)- I had said in my yesterday's post that I expected it to be Bearish . I was proved wrong. Today after openning downslide, Nifty and BNF stabilised and then started a steady upmove which went from strength to strength. When it actually turned bearish , it was a case of too little too late. Little because from R2 it hardly gave 100 points and late because it started coming down after 2.30 so there was hardly ant time left for gains to materialize. Now what about tomorrow? Lets see charts first today.
NIfty's Daily chart shows 3 doji candles with consistent Higher highs and higher Lows. Ditto with BNF. What it means? In my view, Bulls are slowly getting confident. Both the indices are cautiously exploring new highs and when this happens for 3 straight days, on fourth day I would expect a clean Bullish move- a strong green candle on Daily charts . It can come day after tomorrow also but tomorrow it looks more likely. Only condition is, NIFTY and BNF both should not break today's low. IF they do, then again some consolidation may happen. Lets check what DII & FII buy/Sell data suggests. Provisional data shows FIIs to be net buyers by 95 Crs and DIIs to be Net Sellers by 151 Crs . Yet there was a good upmove from lower levels. For some reason, I am not able to see final BUY/ SELL figures of FIIs and DIIs on NSE website. So let it pass.
Call unwinding on all strikes from 11600 to 12000 shows Bears retreating. Highest fresh Call writing (2.04 Lakhs) is at 12200 and highest Call unwinding is seen at 11900 (5.65 lakhs). It shows Bears shifting to higher resistances. On PUT side there is no unwinding on strikes near CMP. In fact there is handsome PUT addition. Highest PUT writing is at 11900 (7.07 lakhs). If you add up fresh OI writing on CALL and PUT side, PUT has a definite edge. So this data also supports bullish move. Now levels- If BNF comes down, It is likely to take support between 31050 & 31115 (support on 15 min chart), so buy here. SL should be just below today's Low and target can be somewhere around 31510. All the best.
It can be tricky to trade with OI data which can be constantly changing on day to day basis. What about a pattern on 15 minute chart of Bank nifty? (Bearish Flag)

If Bank Nifty can trade above 31240 for the day only then we can assume the uptrend is intact. I believe we have better risk to reward ratio on the downside then the upside. Major resistance zones are 31400, 31700. On the downside we have targets open till 29800 which could be possible in the next weekly series only if the Bearish flag pattern works out.

protrader1969 neelimapitroda
@neelimapitroda, Two points: I use OI data only to determine direction the bug guys are going to take. If you take collective perspective, you get fairly reasonable sense of direction. Second point- Patterns, in my view behave better on higher time frames like daily and weekly than on lower time frames like 15 mins.
neelimapitroda protrader1969
@protrader1969, Agree, I do check multiple time frames 15 minutes, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly chart to get a clear picture. Please see my chart for trend lines.

I do value your research on Options data, it does give an insight.
+1 Reply
protrader1969 neelimapitroda
@neelimapitroda, Thanks, will do that.
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