PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 05 JAN 2023 expiry
Take a look at the chart below, 5mts TF its a perfect continuation from yesterday - we broke the 1st support at 09.40 and 2nd support at 13.15 in the single leg.
And then we had a retracement back to the SR level (yellow dotted lines) and final close there.
So what do we infer from the charts today
Expiry level positioning worked out very well today, all the option writers of the strikes mentioned in yesterday's article kept the full premium.
The negative sentiment in US markets are now reflecting here as well. I am not saying because we dropped 0.81% today. Its because the depth of the red candles has stories to tell.
So now we have turned negative for the year - in what what everyone would have thought to be a blockbuster start.
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Of the bank nifty components:
HDFCBANK
had a strong red opening candle and then one more at 13.15. Infact the chart pattern is quite similar to bank nifty
ICICIBANK
had much more intent going down a drop of 2.22% today of which almost an unchecked fall till 14.05
SBIN
chart pattern may seem bearish thats because it had a gap up opening. But the final close was flattish.
AXISBANK
also had a deep fall until 13.25 after which it recovered some ground, but final close at -0.83%
KOTAKBANK
had a similar flattish close like SBI but the chart pattern made today shows bearishness again thats because of gap up open.
INDUSINDBK
had interesting opening 30mts. A gap up open and fall to flat line, then a rally back to the open level and then a fall below the flat line in 3rd candle.
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15mts TF has now negated the bullish case by breaking 3 support levels in 2 days.
1hr TF looking good to form a lower low soon, the reversal on 3rd Jan could become the lower high.
Although the charts says so, bank nifty may not even fall and could consolidate for few days before deciding the direction. It will all depend on the US FED's decision to pause/resume the rate hikes.
If US markets continue to dip, then this time we may not escape as its an exciting time for US FIIs to pull money out from India and take it back. Their debt instruments are paying more interest comparing Indian version when adjusted for currency devaluation !
And then we had a retracement back to the SR level (yellow dotted lines) and final close there.
So what do we infer from the charts today
Expiry level positioning worked out very well today, all the option writers of the strikes mentioned in yesterday's article kept the full premium.
The negative sentiment in US markets are now reflecting here as well. I am not saying because we dropped 0.81% today. Its because the depth of the red candles has stories to tell.
So now we have turned negative for the year - in what what everyone would have thought to be a blockbuster start.
---
Of the bank nifty components:
HDFCBANK
had a strong red opening candle and then one more at 13.15. Infact the chart pattern is quite similar to bank nifty
ICICIBANK
had much more intent going down a drop of 2.22% today of which almost an unchecked fall till 14.05
SBIN
chart pattern may seem bearish thats because it had a gap up opening. But the final close was flattish.
AXISBANK
also had a deep fall until 13.25 after which it recovered some ground, but final close at -0.83%
KOTAKBANK
had a similar flattish close like SBI but the chart pattern made today shows bearishness again thats because of gap up open.
INDUSINDBK
had interesting opening 30mts. A gap up open and fall to flat line, then a rally back to the open level and then a fall below the flat line in 3rd candle. ---
15mts TF has now negated the bullish case by breaking 3 support levels in 2 days.
1hr TF looking good to form a lower low soon, the reversal on 3rd Jan could become the lower high.
Although the charts says so, bank nifty may not even fall and could consolidate for few days before deciding the direction. It will all depend on the US FED's decision to pause/resume the rate hikes.
If US markets continue to dip, then this time we may not escape as its an exciting time for US FIIs to pull money out from India and take it back. Their debt instruments are paying more interest comparing Indian version when adjusted for currency devaluation !
