* Touched the trend channel and now turning lower * Will test the low of 39500 before a bounce back - that maybe a place to take some profits * 39000 can be taken out as all components - HDFC, ICICI, SBIN and Kotak are showing breakdowns below key levels * Will have intermitten boucne backs - however those have to be sold * IV at 14% is still very low given the risk of sell off. But Apr puts at 41000 for 600 - that only 1.5% premium for a 45 day trade
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Take half profit at 39500 and the rest at 38700 if it goes below.
Trade active
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Could give a bounce back above 40,000, however not really technically out of the woods yet. Typically a reversal would be on high volumes, broad based buying - yet to see that
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Take off half profit and let the rest ride. Ideally if you have taken ITM puts, then just leave them till BN shows clear signs of reversal - as of now none. WIth European Banks getting smashed - BN could test a low of 38000 - which is a 2X if the expected move priced by options - stay short & stay strong
Trade closed: target reached
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Closing this out and waiting to see if the market bounces back sharply from here? if it goes back to the trend line of 21 EMA