PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 DEC 2022
When i said i was bearish yesterday, a drop of 32pts was not what i was referring to. Bank nifty held its head high almost the entire day, only the 15.10 candle shows some signs of weakness & a minor break of support.
I was literally unable to take any trades today such was the move of bank nifty today. Well it did not move - killing out the premiums of options both CE and PE. Usually i dont miss any day or sizeable opportunity - but today it was quite a different day !
As you all know i am an option seller only when there is anomaly, i can say with 100% guarantee that today there was nothing. Either the total volumes were very low & speculations were near zero. Or the traders were not taking fresh positions for the expiry tomorrow.
Finally the only trade i took today was a ratio spread by selling 1 lot of 42500 PE and buying 2 lots of 42400 PE - yes a bearish bet for tomorrow. The options premium are not indicating any direction and this position i took was basically a hunch not backed by any indicator or confirmed signals.
Yesterday the US markets SPX closed with losses of 0.4%, Nasdaq with a loss of 1.48%. Prior to all these happening i had written in the article yesterday that if US trades lower there is every possibility that we end the day red on 28th.
We did end the day in RED - but i am not at all happy, as i was expecting cuts of more than 1% on Nifty50, 2% on bank nifty and a bigger fall on NiftyIT.
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Of the bank nifty components:
HDFC bk and ICICI bank had a similar chart pattern and both ending in red.
SBI's chart pattern was looking bullish but the last 30mts brought it below the flat line.
AXIS bank has something fishy, the cuts in the last 45mts were brutal with heavy volumes.
Kotak had one special candle at 13.45 with high volumes but probably this was sold into in the last 45mts
IndusInd held its ground and ended the day in green.
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15mts vs 1hr could be a lower high formation if i got it right. Monthly expiry coming up tomorrow and much fierce US market trading days ahead.
Low volumes may spike the spreads wider creating sharper moves but with little meaning.
I was literally unable to take any trades today such was the move of bank nifty today. Well it did not move - killing out the premiums of options both CE and PE. Usually i dont miss any day or sizeable opportunity - but today it was quite a different day !
As you all know i am an option seller only when there is anomaly, i can say with 100% guarantee that today there was nothing. Either the total volumes were very low & speculations were near zero. Or the traders were not taking fresh positions for the expiry tomorrow.
Finally the only trade i took today was a ratio spread by selling 1 lot of 42500 PE and buying 2 lots of 42400 PE - yes a bearish bet for tomorrow. The options premium are not indicating any direction and this position i took was basically a hunch not backed by any indicator or confirmed signals.
Yesterday the US markets SPX closed with losses of 0.4%, Nasdaq with a loss of 1.48%. Prior to all these happening i had written in the article yesterday that if US trades lower there is every possibility that we end the day red on 28th.
We did end the day in RED - but i am not at all happy, as i was expecting cuts of more than 1% on Nifty50, 2% on bank nifty and a bigger fall on NiftyIT.
---
Of the bank nifty components:
HDFC bk and ICICI bank had a similar chart pattern and both ending in red.
SBI's chart pattern was looking bullish but the last 30mts brought it below the flat line.
AXIS bank has something fishy, the cuts in the last 45mts were brutal with heavy volumes.
Kotak had one special candle at 13.45 with high volumes but probably this was sold into in the last 45mts
IndusInd held its ground and ended the day in green.
---
15mts vs 1hr could be a lower high formation if i got it right. Monthly expiry coming up tomorrow and much fierce US market trading days ahead.
Low volumes may spike the spreads wider creating sharper moves but with little meaning.
