Today's opening reaction was a no-brainer. And to top it all, the open of spot was on Uzone (like, if doesn't get any better than this, that too on an expiry day). Yes, I dont trade the first candle reaction because most of the time you wont be able to catch the whole move. Your entry will probably be executed after the half way. So although percentage wise Spot's would have moved a lot but your PnL wont be that significant.
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My trade was through puts, Obviously, at the Lzone rejection. The rejection is not exactly perfect, but i took entry on basis of nifty and niftybank correlation.
Trade closed: target reached
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Since its expiry and because i was trading options not futures, had to be cautious. So, a quick entry and even quicker exit.
I have a hunch, under current conditions and with no external new, maybe today's expiry will be below 32100.
I repeat, its just a hunch (on basis of certain statistical analysis). If it goes right, will proceed that way in the next expiry. I personally am not entering on this basis today. Let's see