Acrophobia - Fear of Heights and a fall from the highest level can be dreadful. That's what we are looking in BankNifty, though Nifty & Gold has fallen a bit, here we are still at 20k's at the top almost forming a Double top. Whether this Double top will fail or work - we are unsure about that. This post is insync with our recent post about Nifty & Gold, remember they also show bearish signs.
This 5-wave will get truncated, thats why the double top signal is slowly forming on weekly chart ? If that happens we can see 6000 points move to the south, hugging & roaring with bears. This isn't exact trade setup, its our analysis based on the technical tools we have & how the global outlook is. Has anyone checked on US Bank Index, its up almost 20% in last 3 months, Yeah you read it right 3 months. When was the last time US bank index where at current levels - 2008 , before the recession time & big fall.
With Trump victory all are suggesting its good for US Banks & Pharma, but when you have 20% rise without any correction isn't something real fishy ? I can explain why the rise & what's fishy but it will take more lengthier post, so lets keep it crisp. Trump is good for US corporates only & its nativism, not good for US or world economy. We can't comment on his nativism but his economic/tax policies aren't good. So, the US economy & Markets also waiting for the fall.
In 2015, BankNifty fell down 7000 points & in 2016 we rose up 7000 points, A whooping 14000 points movement. With this double top, another 7k points down ? Crazy thought..but we will love that if history repeats itself. In DJIA also bearish harmonic pattern ( courtesy : Nirav ), So where-ever we look we see bearish signs - Nifty, BankNifty, Gold, US Bank Index & DJIA... We don't know whether these will go as planned or not,but All I can see - " Winter is Coming & Bears are here to Stay ! "
If you find any other Bearish signs feel free to post it below in comments...charts also welcome, Lets Discuss...!
" Winter is Coming & Bears are here to Stay ! " InsiderB
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I went through all the comments now & contribution you guys made & realized -" You Guys are Awesome ". Just take a look how much knowledge sharing happened over here & how interactive it became - all because of your inputs, be it news events, charts, analysis or fun facts, I just love this interaction Guys. Surely, it will help more struggling traders out there, You Guys Rock !
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Any of you guys facing this discrepancy or Only Me - check the close prices & data window :
InsiderB, No words for your super analytical note comprising views on Nifty, Gold, Bnf, US Bank Index.
You have drawn our attention to interesting scenarios building up in Nifty and Bnf. Please guide us on trade scenarios as and when the occur.
Am eagerly looking for a 'Jackpot' Bnf trade even if prolonged one.
Request you all seniors, do share long term Option Strike, we all will carry forward as required and guided by you guys.
I would love to see friends here post US Bank Index chart and further comments from you and all you other senior gurus. Regards.
InsiderB
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@rajesh2467, Thanks for the kind words, I think market is giving us a combined signal but lets see. Regarding option strike on long term, its ideal for each one to choose on their own based on risk & this is not trade setup ( atleast for Me, bcos weekly chart), so we need to wait for minimum 6 months in a trade. I guess now we have started real healthy trend of people coming out with their charts n opinions posting it out in comments section, Thanks for sharing your views !
nirav5
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VEDL weekly chart suggests initial set up for Cup and Handle pattern. If the pattern is right we can have a first target as 166 and second target as 125. Then the channel breakout from either of the levels will be buying opportunity. However we don't have a channel yet. :-) I am assuming from the double top formation near 233. If blown we will be back to the drawing room. Let me know your opinion on it.
InsiderB
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@nirav5, I checked on that on weekly, (1) If we draw Elliott's from 2010 highs there are two conclusions (i) We are in corrective wave (a) now OR (ii) Irregular correctives wave (c) but the counts are little cramped bcos of the chart.
(2) Tried simple trendline on the current bullrun, only had two touches, so as long as it remains above the trendline Vedl looks like touching 300's
Cup & handle & Double top - I agree with both of them, only point we are looking at weekly so Major news event can change the scene just like that. Applies to our BankNifty/Gold/Nifty/Djia n everything as they are weekly analysis.
VadivalPranchi
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@nirav5, from last two weeks I m watching the chart and what a marvelous recovery I think the increase in the loss in Q2 results will surely help to form the handle may be a big handle.
nirav5
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Thank you for your time and analysis. It would be interesting to see 5th wave's behavior. Weekly charts are difficult to trade as we easily get deceived by our inner belief by seeing daily chart's movement going in the expected direction. However they do provide outline and very useful for long term portfolio management.
I found SBIN weekly chart interesting. We are in the D leg of Bearish BAT pattern. However we will have to change our X point and D point if SBIN moves above 292 level.
InsiderB
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@nirav5, Good Eye, well found Alt-bat I guess, I have a slight feeling that bcos of the euphoria we may touch 300's before starting to fall. Let's see, Thanks for sharing with explanatory chart :)
ShanTrader
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Good anaylsis Insider. I had drawn a similar pattern about a week ago on Nifty before our markets tanked and had shared it privately with a fellow TV member, reg the possibility of a major top being in place and looking down for a bearish large move down. Its quite a possibility from this point itself but at the same time, the wave counts do allow for a last leg up in wave 5. Next week should bring in more clarity in direction with a large number of Indian companies declaring their Q2 results and we are of course ready for anything the market is ready to throw at us.......are'nt we.
InsiderB
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@ShanTrader, Thats good to hear about ur Nifty shan & cool to know we share similar view. I think this will take more time than next week, its our overview, so keeping this in our mind we are gonna trade on smaller timeframes. Yeah, we are ready, Bull or Bear, Never Fear :)
AMBRISH
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Thanks for long term view, Now banks are flush with cheap fund. market will be volatile for few days on rumors.
good luck.
You have drawn our attention to interesting scenarios building up in Nifty and Bnf. Please guide us on trade scenarios as and when the occur.
Am eagerly looking for a 'Jackpot' Bnf trade even if prolonged one.
Request you all seniors, do share long term Option Strike, we all will carry forward as required and guided by you guys.
I would love to see friends here post US Bank Index chart and further comments from you and all you other senior gurus. Regards.