Probable Scenario Analysis:
(1) BULLISH SCENARIO:
There is no observable bullish scenario. Price must form a higher highs and lower lows structure above the level 56000. If price sustains above level 56000 and decisively breaks out level 56500, then the probable bullish targets would be - 57000, 57500, and 58000.
(2) BEARISH SCENARIO:
Price is in a bearish zone. If the price sustains below the level 55000 and decisively breaks down below 54500, then the probable bearish targets would be - 54000, 53500, 53000, and 52500.
(3) Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price.
(4) No Trading Zone (NTZ): (56000 - 55000).
(5) Range of Consolidation (ROC): (56500 - 54500).
Trading within the ROC will be very difficult. We have to wait for either a breakout or breakdown for clear trend confirmation.
(6) Event: 2026 Legislative Assembly Election Result of 4 States and 1 U.T. on 04th May (Monday). It is a high-impact event. There is no expiry on Monday. It is the first day of the month and a trading session after a three-day-long weekend holiday. EXPECT MAJOR PRICE ANOMALY. Maybe the markets will be crazy. IF POSSIBLE, AVOID TRADING ON THE HIGH IMPACT EVENT. Lastly, geopolitical volatility due to 'Trump's Tantrums' is always there. We can't help with that.
(7) All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price anomaly. Since 04th of May is a high-impact event, there is a high probability that the trading plan won't work. So, be judicious while trading on the high-impact event.
Top-Down Analysis:
(1) Monthly TF:
The candle is a green spinning top. It is inside the red marubozu candle formed in the month of March. Major resistance level 56000. Major support level 54000. The view is indecision.
(2) Weekly TF:
Back-2-back 2 weeks red candle. A lower low and lower highs are intact. There is no sign of bullishness; rather, there is a sign of trend reversal (from bullish to bearish). The first sign of bullishness will emerge once a proper green (bullish) candle is formed above the level 56000. Until then, take no bullish trades. Level 54500 seems to be a weak support. It looks like the price could easily reach level 54000. If level 54000 is breached, then the price might fall further to level 53000. The view is indecision to bearish.
(3) Daily TF:
Since 22nd April 2026, there has been a lower lows and lower highs structure formation. There is no sign of bullishness yet. Doubt every up move unless price decisively sustains above level 56000 for at least a day or two. Price is trading below the downward sloping (9, 20, 50, 100, 150, and 200 EMA). The view is bearish.
(4) 30-minute TF:
Price is in a lower lows and lower highs structure. There is no sign of reversal or bullishness. Bearish bias is high. For a bullish trade, the price must break out above the zone (56500 - 56000). For a proper bearish trade, the price must break down below the zone (55000 - 55500). Lastly, price is trading below 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 200 EMA (all downward sloping). The view is bearish.
NOTE:
(i) Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity. Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT your CAPITAL. BE RESPONSIBLE.
(ii) Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Plan your trade. Trade your plan. Anything can happen in the markets. Therefore, trade what you see, not what you believe.
(iii) Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
(iv) Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of the past successes or failures. Always trade from a new perspective. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
(1) BULLISH SCENARIO:
There is no observable bullish scenario. Price must form a higher highs and lower lows structure above the level 56000. If price sustains above level 56000 and decisively breaks out level 56500, then the probable bullish targets would be - 57000, 57500, and 58000.
(2) BEARISH SCENARIO:
Price is in a bearish zone. If the price sustains below the level 55000 and decisively breaks down below 54500, then the probable bearish targets would be - 54000, 53500, 53000, and 52500.
(3) Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price.
(4) No Trading Zone (NTZ): (56000 - 55000).
(5) Range of Consolidation (ROC): (56500 - 54500).
Trading within the ROC will be very difficult. We have to wait for either a breakout or breakdown for clear trend confirmation.
(6) Event: 2026 Legislative Assembly Election Result of 4 States and 1 U.T. on 04th May (Monday). It is a high-impact event. There is no expiry on Monday. It is the first day of the month and a trading session after a three-day-long weekend holiday. EXPECT MAJOR PRICE ANOMALY. Maybe the markets will be crazy. IF POSSIBLE, AVOID TRADING ON THE HIGH IMPACT EVENT. Lastly, geopolitical volatility due to 'Trump's Tantrums' is always there. We can't help with that.
(7) All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price anomaly. Since 04th of May is a high-impact event, there is a high probability that the trading plan won't work. So, be judicious while trading on the high-impact event.
Top-Down Analysis:
(1) Monthly TF:
The candle is a green spinning top. It is inside the red marubozu candle formed in the month of March. Major resistance level 56000. Major support level 54000. The view is indecision.
(2) Weekly TF:
Back-2-back 2 weeks red candle. A lower low and lower highs are intact. There is no sign of bullishness; rather, there is a sign of trend reversal (from bullish to bearish). The first sign of bullishness will emerge once a proper green (bullish) candle is formed above the level 56000. Until then, take no bullish trades. Level 54500 seems to be a weak support. It looks like the price could easily reach level 54000. If level 54000 is breached, then the price might fall further to level 53000. The view is indecision to bearish.
(3) Daily TF:
Since 22nd April 2026, there has been a lower lows and lower highs structure formation. There is no sign of bullishness yet. Doubt every up move unless price decisively sustains above level 56000 for at least a day or two. Price is trading below the downward sloping (9, 20, 50, 100, 150, and 200 EMA). The view is bearish.
(4) 30-minute TF:
Price is in a lower lows and lower highs structure. There is no sign of reversal or bullishness. Bearish bias is high. For a bullish trade, the price must break out above the zone (56500 - 56000). For a proper bearish trade, the price must break down below the zone (55000 - 55500). Lastly, price is trading below 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 200 EMA (all downward sloping). The view is bearish.
NOTE:
(i) Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity. Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT your CAPITAL. BE RESPONSIBLE.
(ii) Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Plan your trade. Trade your plan. Anything can happen in the markets. Therefore, trade what you see, not what you believe.
(iii) Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
(iv) Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of the past successes or failures. Always trade from a new perspective. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
Note
It is 11:30 AM.(i) Opening Price: 54937.9
(ii) Price is trading in the No Trading Zone (NTZ): (56000 - 55000).
(iii) Major Resistance Zone: (56500 - 56000). Take no bullish trade unless the price decisively breaks out above the resistance zone.
(iv) Major Support Zone: (55000 - 54500). Take no bearish trade unless the price decisively breaks down below the support zone.
(v) Today is a high-impact event - 2026 Legislative Assembly Election Result of 4 States and 1 U.T.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.