AJAYSHARMA
Short

Is it a blow out rally (26000)- before a crash

NSE:BANKNIFTY   NIFTY BANK
347 views
I better be wrong
I was looking at Bank Nifty on monthly charts and was trying to fit it into an impulse But I saw and overlap 13407.35(purpoted end of wave 4 of intermediate level) and 13414.30 (purpoted end of wave 1 of intermediate degree) . Wave 4 can never overlap wave 1 . Because of this I had to label the entire move from 2007 as a triple zig zag for Bank Nifty . (Caveat Bank stocks pre date Bank Nifty - so we may not be getting the full wave - For a better study we should look at the oldest listing of a Public Sector and a private sector bank - but anyway) .
There are the observations
1. There is a bearish RSI divergence in the present wave Z . And RSI is not in an oversold zone. Thats not good .
2. If it is a triple zig zag . We will have A-B-C . So this C is not a 3 . So C is the last wave . And this C is impulsive .
3. For conservative targets A=C . It comes at 24504 and 1.618 comes at 28641 .
4. We can also calculate the target from within C also which is an impulse .

There is a cluster of targets in the vicinity of 25500 - 26000. This is the actionable point for opening shorts .

Comments

My chart is also forecasting a similar pattern in daily chart .an angled trend line inside the main trend line,The NPA of banks are sky rocketing,Loan requests are all time low A crash is inevitable some where in near future.But when ?
Don't jump in shorts wait for conformation
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AJAYSHARMA ajayww2
@ajayww2, NPA resolution will result in mega monopolies esp. in steel . Small players will concede.
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Dear Ajay Sharma,

Can you look at this alternate.... your label charts vs alternate.

WC = 1
B after this = 2
YC = 3.i
X @ 13407.35 = 3.ii
A after this point = 3.3.i
B = 3.3.ii
Current ongoing wave = 3.3.iii.....the eye of the storm

Simple cue....in entire chart history you have plotted..have you even seen strong back to back 5 monthly bull candles with a series of higher high - lows..and every fall being retraced in faster time ????

Lets accept the bias and follow :)

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AJAYSHARMA raghavendrakumart
@raghavendrakumart, I wanted to label it is an impulse . But that overlap which I have stated has been bothering me 4 a long time . I always take the most conservative count.
U see that in Y wave C is 2.618 times wave A . So I wont be surprised if wave C in Z goes 3.618 times wave A . Secondly had it been a 3 of 3 of 3 we should have had highest RSI measures in an over bought zone . But there is a bearish divergence . So the jury is still out . Best way is to trade for higher levels with trailing stop loss . Limit risk , eliminate risk and protect profits. I am trading it this way .
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@AJAYSHARMA,

What is the RSI level in week chart...vs entire BN Life chart ? :)
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AJAYSHARMA raghavendrakumart
@raghavendrakumart, I have taken a monthly chart . It shows divergence . But I have said that wave C impulse is not complete . So if u take lets say a weekly , daily or a 15 min chart they will shows u the movement of the impulse in C . U will find it to be extremely bullish with over bought RSI's . These are the charts u can place trailing stop losses on . Key is seeing a bearish divergence at monthly , weekly . daily and 15 min chart simultaneously . For eg . Bearish divergence in monthly chart but bullish divergence in weekly chart is a trailing stop loss point .
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@AJAYSHARMA,

Got your point...my key learning from my Master...is Negative divergence usually fails in a 3rd wave...

I always Or used to count Alphabets in corrections and numbers in Impulses....

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AJAYSHARMA raghavendrakumart
@raghavendrakumart, This will be too much frm my side pardon me . A person has eg. has cancer . It is a bearish divergence on monthly chart . But on a weekly chart he is well and looking up . He is fit on a daily chart . Absolutely full of momentum on a 15 min chart . But it is a matter of time . So RSI has different meanings at different time frames . Use Elliott and RSI together . And see on which time frame u trade . I have held ITC on monthly time frame 4 8 years.
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AJAYSHARMA AJAYSHARMA
@AJAYSHARMA, Concentrate on making profits. Forget abt monthly charts . Use 15 minute charts.
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what ever target we give public...it will achieve in next 7-10 days.....easily that is power of all bull markets
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