From bottoms of 17600- it moved up to 18249- wave-(i) then retraced back 61.8% in wave-ii at 17830's -key level@17828 (remember-"Super 17828 support- did you use it"- previous update)
Looks like BN - finished wave-( iii ) at 200% of wave-(i) which comes in the zone 19180-19200 zones & now shall be looking for retracement in the zone 18535-18690 zones below 18780-18800 zones.
Scenario-1: Either look for selling below recent low 18980 for targets 18800-18825 as there is , which was clicked by us in earlier update & we were out of selling right at the bottom 18780-18800 zone- expected weakness below 18780 marks- Amazing!
Scenario-2: Look for a bounce from 19050-19060 zones of current day close to 19125-19150 zone once goes into that zone & holds & starts falling back again below 19080- 19100 zone & sustains below 19080 then we will look for selling opportunities for target zones 18800-18825 ---below 18780 for 18680-18700 & below 18650 for 18500-18535.
Scenario-3:-- "Risky Call" - if BN sustains above 19050 keeping stops below 19000 -can look for 19125-19150 zone as target zone
In below mentioned update- zone of 18780-18800 was determined as & selling was suggested only below 18780 levels-Bang On for the move
Below mentioned update-Super 17828 level gave us explosive move- did you use it
BankNifty 2016 Diary- Tricky 17828-18443-18740-- How Bank Nifty moved in 2016 -knocking the opportunities
Moves from days low 19075 to 19150 which was scenario-3 -Risky buy call.
Risky Scenario moves & it is an explosive move - hmm going above 19203 -latest high we need to come back again.
We will wait for a pullback to the zone 19145-19165 --if holds Then we will look to join the upside move with stops below 19100
Recent low@19170-- prices puked from top@19250's zone. Likely we will wait & watch for some time to see if it holds in the nearby zone.
Bounces from recent low of 19159--Amazing!!!
We are trailing our stop to cost price @19160 -nothing to lose.
We struggled in the zone 19180-19200 & took the stop in current buying with stops below 19160
Likely we are expecting a bounce, but it should not trade below 19080- so some risk is involved in buying or we wait to see prices settles down above 19080-19100 zone to get an upside move but also be careful- BN should not move below zones suggested above.
Likely it was zero risk as we trailed our stops to cost@19160
19080 is the critical level -BN should not cross below that level as that will be clue to bulls -be careful
Prices are drifting slowly steadily down with again new low just below 19120 - Those who can take shocks they only should buy as 19080 is critical level for us or going above 19215 if sustains then one can think of buying or just above 19100 to see whether 19080 is protected downside.
I bought close to 19120 as I can take the risk of buying with stops below 19080 & eventually I have now trailed my stops to current low-5 points & shall lose only 5-10 points in the trade. If goes below 19115 as that is my stop.
Only those who can carry the trade with stops below 19080 -strict -they only others can close & comeback again tomorrow.
It struggled at 19080 marks, but ultimately gave away & made recent low@19045 - we are trying to sync with Nifty --if nifty holds between 8370-8385 with strict stops below 8370 & pushes upside then likely BN will also move up travelling close to 18925--18950 zone where the next support could be seen for Bank Nifty.
Risk Takers with stops above 19115 can take short at current price@19085 for the target 18950-18960 zone.
Now moving ahead- if BN goes above 19200 -we will have a positive bias else negative bias for the day till it finds next support going below 19045 in the zone 18950-18960.
In this process it should stay below 19110-19115 zone- which will be another clue for coming back again.
Stops taken from the risky sell call at 19085 so we close for the day.
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ