30 Jun '23 Post Mortem on BankNifty

Comparing with N50, banknifty did close the gap-up opening. Looking at the opening minutes I felt BN had more inclination to fall into the trading range of the previous day, but the way in which NiftyIT was surging - BN would have changed the mind to play along.

BN also hit a new all time high of 44787.1 today, but the thrust to go up was not as convincing as N50. HDFC-HDFCBK may be the primary reason that these indices has got a new-found passion to outperform. Well we had 2 news flow in IndusInd and Federal Bank which helped it jump more than 3%.

The one aspect in today's price action was the helplessness of the bears, they tried to bring down BN on 2 occasions but did not get enough crowd support. 
The good news that came in was "Indian banks' gross bad loans fall to a 10-year low of 3.9%: RBI's Financial Stability Report".

One news which looked scary was "Bank of America nurses $100bn paper loss after big bet in bond market". I am not sure if the SPX & SPF has priced this in.

Something is not adding up, either the US FED rates are too high or the Indian RBI rates are not high enough. We have dichotomy in the financial sector - India vs US.

1hr TF
BN has 2 islands vs 3 for N50. The new support level is now 44443 below which we can expect some range-bound trade. As it stands situation is very favorable for the bulls to continue the dream run.


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