AbhishekHSinghCMT
Short

Bank Nifty- Double Top Story of 2010-2013 Cycle Will it repeat?

NSE:BANKNIFTY   NIFTY BANK
1290 16 26
I am not changing my bearish stand from earlier updates-yes the counts have changed but the outcome is same.

The rally from 3315 in year 2009 made a fresh high 13300 in late 2010 which was retested in 2013 by a high@13415 approx.

It is a super bullish count for Indian Markets but not immediately as likely it could repeat the story of double top which was done in 2010-2013.

Initial double top (Year 2010-2013) we had in wave-(2) which was formed as W-X-Y             sequence(red wave). A possible scenario which can repeat in 2015-2017 but this wave-2 within larger wave-(3) again can take the form of W-X (which is close to finish or finished@21042 recent high) & we expect wave-Y down to finish wave-2.

Duration 1022 Days
Likely it should take same duration as it did for larger wave-(2) - 1022 days, so BN             could go into late 2017 or early 2018 to finish smaller wave-2(Green wave) within Wave(3).

Trading Strategy (Very Important Question)

However fascinating it is -one should never get carried away -which is my mantra of trading- confirmation - so, wait- Let the market puke- it spreads like wildfire- "You heard Market Puked - Is it true -Market Puked" - then you know bears are coming back.

Have a nice weekend!!!


Trade active: 17:27 Hrs 27th Feb2017

Last Price@20613

Wow! It was a nice fall in the day. 200-225 points fall from 20820 to 20585.
Trade active: 09:52 Hrs 28th Feb2017

Last Price@20618

Intraday Trading Strategy-

Holding 20650-20675 on top if it goes below 20600 likely can test the gap of 20350-20375 as a target zone or

If goes above 20650-20675 then bounces upside for 100-150 points for target zone 20825-20850

Trade active: 11:51 Hrs 28th feb2017

Last price@20585

The recent dip till 20550-20565 look to book or exit once goes above 20650 it could rush upside for 20825-20850.
Trade active: 14:16 Hrs 28th feb2017

Last Price@20622

It turned exactly from 20550-20565 - Risk Takers have zero risk of buying if shoots -goes into 20825-20850 as suggested above.
Trade active: 15:13 Hrs 28th Feb2017

Last Price@20582

Taking long positions home has risky as markets never allow to cut your trades in case of a gap down & we are trading a counter trend move which will give required push if crosses 20650 for desired zone 20825-20850 - we are interested in a larger move & we will not hurry to judge the medium term direction.
Comment: 15:27 Hrs 28th feb2017

Last Price@20640

Market is about to end & it starts moving upside- from 20580's to 20640. Sometimes- "market pe bahut gussa aata hai"
Trade active: 09:37 Hrs 1st March2017

Good Morning!!!
What a day to start with a green candle.
Last Price@20803

Day's High@20833 was just shy of the upper zone of the target 20850- hope -you guys have booked profit in early session. Intraday we got opportunity from 20690-20700 zone for target 20825-20850.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
http://in.tradingview.com
| LinkedIn
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
Hi Abhi it has broken through the double top resistance in Daily Charts unlike 2013. What is your view will it go up..
Reply
@Gogsanatomy, Any down move will become strong if BN starts moving below 20575 highs.
Reply
Hi Abhishek,

Does this high zone calls for a short now? or it is expected to consolidate here? Regards/ Savita
Reply
@samayra, See,BN is still doing consolidation. Likely, no clue which side it heads next better one should wait to get the confirmation. Trading below 20400 -20500 band is the initial clue for downside.
Reply
can we short now for 20350?
Reply
@uttamtrader15, I updated above no sell or exit.
Reply
what is the time line? do we need to be hort from now on?
Reply
@nalinakshi, We will still wait to see what kind of bounce we get. Next I will keep moving with the post above- Date & price wise.
Reply
Good Analysis Abhishek...though the preferred count would be 5th wave ON for me...

few indicators like this one http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-news/comment-bank-nifty-overbought-traders-know-just-when-to-exit-trades_8553601.html though indicating the impulse may get halted.

Let's track what the Supreme market has in store for us
Reply
Just one ques abhi, why 20907 cannot be wave 3.
Reply
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