(BEL Case Study)
NSE:BEL (Daily) - Bull Flag at All-Time Highs
📈 Key Observations
ATH Breakout Confirmed:
Price smashed through ₹340.50 previos ATH, hitting a historic high of ₹393.50.
Consolidation in a tight bull flag (₹378.50–393.50) after a 28.97% surge – classic bullish continuation setup.
ADX: Your Trend Compass 🧭
ADX at 43.95 signals a powerful, directional trend (Readings >25 = strong trend; >40 = explosive momentum).
Ignore oscillator noise: Trends trump RSI/MACD in parabolic moves.
Pattern > Oscillators:
Bull Flag Priority: The pattern’s integrity (lower volume consolidation) outweighs short-term RSI(79)/MACD wobbles.
🚀 Trade Strategy: Trend-First Framework
✅ Entry & Targets
Trigger: Daily close above ₹393.50 (flag resistance).
Add: Retest of ₹393.50 as support.
Targets:
Short-term: ₹420 (5% above ATH)
Measured Move: ₹482 (ATH + pole height: 393.50 + 88.20)
⚔️ Stop-Loss
Conservative: ₹378.50 (flag low breach).
Aggressive: ₹385 (tight stop, honors consolidation structure).
📊 Position Sizing
Risk ≤1% capital per trade.
Reward/Risk Ratio: 4:1 (₹482 target vs. ₹378.50 stop).
💡 Why ADX Trumps RSI/MACD at ATHs
RSI/MACD are lagging in strong trends:
RSI overbought ≠ reversal – it’s fuel for momentum stocks.
MACD crosses often "whipsaw" in high-ADX environments (BEL’s ADX >40 invalidates bearish MACD signals).
ADX is proactive:
"Trends persist until ADX rolls below 30" – Focus on price, not oscillator fears.
🌐 Sector & Fundamental Tailwinds
Defense Sector Strength: India’s capex boost; BEL’s order book increasing.
Institutional Conviction: FIIs increasing stake.
🛡️ Risk Management Checklist
✅ Trade only on confirmed close above ATH.
✅ Use ADX >40 as a momentum green light.
✅ Trail stops at 20-DMA (₹365) once +10% profit.
Chart Markup:
Blue line: Bull flag Resistance at ₹393.50.
Red Line: Bull Flag Support ₹378.50
ADX(14) subchart with 40+ threshold highlighted.
💎 Final Thought: ATH breakouts are trend accelerators, not tops. BEL’s bull flag + ADX >40 frames a high-probability continuation play. Stick with the trend until ADX says otherwise.
Boost this idea if you’re tracking BEL’s breakout!
Follow for high-probability ATH trade setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer
"This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results. Always conduct independent research and consult a SEBI-registered advisor. The author holds no position in BEL at time of publication."
NSE:BEL (Daily) - Bull Flag at All-Time Highs
📈 Key Observations
ATH Breakout Confirmed:
Price smashed through ₹340.50 previos ATH, hitting a historic high of ₹393.50.
Consolidation in a tight bull flag (₹378.50–393.50) after a 28.97% surge – classic bullish continuation setup.
ADX: Your Trend Compass 🧭
ADX at 43.95 signals a powerful, directional trend (Readings >25 = strong trend; >40 = explosive momentum).
Ignore oscillator noise: Trends trump RSI/MACD in parabolic moves.
Pattern > Oscillators:
Bull Flag Priority: The pattern’s integrity (lower volume consolidation) outweighs short-term RSI(79)/MACD wobbles.
🚀 Trade Strategy: Trend-First Framework
✅ Entry & Targets
Trigger: Daily close above ₹393.50 (flag resistance).
Add: Retest of ₹393.50 as support.
Targets:
Short-term: ₹420 (5% above ATH)
Measured Move: ₹482 (ATH + pole height: 393.50 + 88.20)
⚔️ Stop-Loss
Conservative: ₹378.50 (flag low breach).
Aggressive: ₹385 (tight stop, honors consolidation structure).
📊 Position Sizing
Risk ≤1% capital per trade.
Reward/Risk Ratio: 4:1 (₹482 target vs. ₹378.50 stop).
💡 Why ADX Trumps RSI/MACD at ATHs
RSI/MACD are lagging in strong trends:
RSI overbought ≠ reversal – it’s fuel for momentum stocks.
MACD crosses often "whipsaw" in high-ADX environments (BEL’s ADX >40 invalidates bearish MACD signals).
ADX is proactive:
"Trends persist until ADX rolls below 30" – Focus on price, not oscillator fears.
🌐 Sector & Fundamental Tailwinds
Defense Sector Strength: India’s capex boost; BEL’s order book increasing.
Institutional Conviction: FIIs increasing stake.
🛡️ Risk Management Checklist
✅ Trade only on confirmed close above ATH.
✅ Use ADX >40 as a momentum green light.
✅ Trail stops at 20-DMA (₹365) once +10% profit.
Chart Markup:
Blue line: Bull flag Resistance at ₹393.50.
Red Line: Bull Flag Support ₹378.50
ADX(14) subchart with 40+ threshold highlighted.
💎 Final Thought: ATH breakouts are trend accelerators, not tops. BEL’s bull flag + ADX >40 frames a high-probability continuation play. Stick with the trend until ADX says otherwise.
Boost this idea if you’re tracking BEL’s breakout!
Follow for high-probability ATH trade setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer
"This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Past performance ≠ future results. Always conduct independent research and consult a SEBI-registered advisor. The author holds no position in BEL at time of publication."
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.