My view is Option 1 and 2 have a < 0.1% probability, maybe even lower. Below $2900 would indicate the entire system has failed and there is no chance it would just go on to make new highs. In a macro environment where all fiat base moneys are being printed at an 18%+ clip as of Q1 2020, and accelerating - I don't see why anyone holding Bitcoin would sell hard-capped money with superior monetary properties for garbage limitlessly printed money.
The deepest correction possible would be another global liquidity crunch (ie. stock market panic 2).
Given this, Option 3 seems most reasonable. Option 4 is probably drawn over too long of a time frame (until end of 2020 with no progress?) but is possible.
I don't think Option 1 & 2 would ever get that low. Miners would stop at those low levels. And that would mean something worse has happened other than a worldly pandemic where the entire planet shuts down. I think Option 3 is where it's at (and I'm not saying that as a moonboy, saying that because I think the next bull run will happen in 2021, but it'll peak around 90K or so. But of course I have no clue and neither does anyone else. But it's an educated guess.
The deepest correction possible would be another global liquidity crunch (ie. stock market panic 2).
Given this, Option 3 seems most reasonable. Option 4 is probably drawn over too long of a time frame (until end of 2020 with no progress?) but is possible.