I know the title is a little bit catchy but what is says seems not to be far from the reality. This is a combination of studies I released in the past and it clearly decodes every Cycle High (practically the All Time High) and duration. Who wouldn't actually want to know when and where Bitcoin's next Top will be? For the record this study is based on the 1W chart (every candle/ bar represents 1 week).
** Cycle 1 ** Let's take it from the beginning. BTC's Cycle 1 made a Bottom on the November 07 2011 candle and it took 67 weeks/ bars (469 days) to reach the May 2011 All Time High (ATH). That 67 bar sequence printed a +1487% rise. That was Phase 1 of Bull Market of Cycle 1. The next ATH was on November 2013 around $1230. That was a +3591% rise and was 2.415 times greater than the previous one of 1487% (i.e. 1487% X 2.415 = 3591%). Make a note of 2.415 because it is a constant we will be using in the following Cycles. The duration of that Phase (Phase 2 we'll call it) from the end of Phase 1 to the new ATH, was 39 weeks/ bars (273 days).
Cycle 1 Summary: Phase 1 (Cycle bottom until ATH test) = 67 weeks duration and +1487% rise Phase 2 (ATH test until Cycle top) = 39 weeks duration and +3591% rise (which is X 2.415 times the rise of Phase 1) 1st Constant = 2.415 (%rise of Phase 1 X 2.415 = %rise of Phase 2)
** Cycle 2** The Phase 1 of Cycle 2 lasted 103 bars and posted a +618% rise. We now have our 2nd Constant. Notice that the duration of Phase 1 (103 bars) is 1.54 times the duration of the Phase 1 (67 bars) of the previous (Cycle 1) Cycle (67 bars X 1.54 = 103 bars/ weeks). Phase 2 (of Cycle 2) posted a +1492% rise which is well in accordance to our 1st Constant (2.415) as Phase 1 rise was 618% X 2.415 = 1492%. Additionally Phase 2 lasted 49 weeks. Take note now as this is our 3rd Constant. 49 weeks is X 1.25 times the duration of Phase 2 of the previous Cycle (Cycle 1) that was 39 week, i.e. 39 X 1.25 = 49.
Cycle 2 Summary: Phase 1 = 103 weeks duration (67 weeks (Phase 1 of Cycle 1) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 103 weeks) and 618% rise (bottom to ATH). Phase 2 = 49 weeks duration (39 weeks (Phase 2 of Cycle 1) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 49 weeks) and 1492% rise (618% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1492%). 2nd Constant = 1.54 (duration of Phase 1 of previous Cycle X 1.54 = duration of Phase 1 of current Cycle). 3rd Constant = 1.25 (duration of Phase 2 of previous Cycle X 1.25 = duration of Phase 2 of current Cycle).
** Cycle 3 ** The Phase 1 of Cycle 3 is currently underway. Assuming the 2nd Constant is correct it should take 158 weeks (103 weeks (Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 158 weeks) until Phase 1 of Cycle 3 (current) tests the ATH of December 2017. That would be in December 2021. What we know for sure is that its rise from the December 2018 Bottom to the ATH test is +527%. So again assuming that the 1st constant is correct, the % rise of Phase 2 should be 1274% (527% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 3) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1274%). That puts the projected Top of the current (3rd) Cycle at $270000! That answers the "how much". The question of "when" is answered by the the 3rd Constant, which again assuming it is correct, Phase 2 of Cycle 3 should last 61 weeks (49 weeks (Phase 2 Cycle 2) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 61 weeks), which times the top on February 2023!
Cycle 3 Summary: Phase 1 = 158 weeks duration (103 weeks (Phase 1 Cycle 2) X 1.54 (2nd Constant) = 158 weeks) and 527% rise (bottom to ATH). Phase 2 = 61 weeks duration (49 weeks (Phase 2 Cycle 2) X 1.25 (3rd Constant) = 61 weeks) and 1274% rise (527% (% rise of Phase 1 Cycle 3) X 2.415 (1st Constant) = 1274%).
** Conclusion ** So to sum it up, the answer to the questions that all BTCUSD investors seek (according to the above data which are based purely on Bitcoin's cyclical technical behavior) is that the Top of the current Cycle will be at $270000. However that won't come until February 2023. And to make things more agonizing for investors, the data show that the price won't reach the current ATH (roughly $20000) before December 2021!
Will that be a great prolonged accumulation period for Bitcoin or will add to the anxiety of holders? Is the $270000 overly optimistic or pessimistic? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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@FOMOSAPIEN1, This is highly disturbing please spare everyone the time. I posted this study initially on the cryptoreddit thread in April. It was an aggregated effort by combining various of my past studies such as those below (for obvious reasons I can't include all of them here, it will be considered spamming), where as you see I tackle subjects like "bottom-to-top durations", "Higher High-to-Higher High measurement", "cycle to cycle growth between Cycles" and many more. So your "original" work was either copied straight from my work or you saw other studies of mine like those I post below, combined it and thought you came up with an original result. Either way spare me the time of thinking that I searched the whole web to copy a 15 follower author and his 300 views idea.
Phi-Deltalytics
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@TradingShot, great work! Anyone with a brain should be able to tell where the originality lies. Thanks for putting all the time into the analysis!
hujianghua
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@FOMOSAPIEN1, I read your home page, 3 posts, 15 fans. Compared with 953 shot posts and 17299 fans, his analysis is based on orderly progress. If I choose, I will be the first to delete you.
@FOMOSAPIEN1, very nice. But you might not be the 1st one to chart like this.
CarpeMomentum
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Good stuff! Thanks for investing so much time in these analysis.
Couple of comments:
Doesn't this contradict the Stock-to-Flow predictions in terms of timing for the 100k high?
You only have one observation point for the Phase 2 to Phase 1 duration (not that any of this would hold statistical checks).
TradingShot
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@CarpeMomentum, Thanks CM. You make valid points regarding the StF and the limited observation on Phases. But unfortunately that is our sample so far and we have to work with that. Don't forget Bitcoin has only been around for 10 years and long-term macro economic projections will be relative to that span as opposed to financial assets (like stock indices) that have been around for decades.
satiev1
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@TradingShot, Agree. So you're saying ath end of 2021 or early 2022? That's my view as well.
TradingShot
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@satiev1, ATH end of 2021 (December). Peak of Cycle early 2023. Highly speculative though, but this is what the data show us.