BTC fractal theory
I gave this chart a theory name as a joke:-) But the chart is not a joke. The chart above combined with the chart below will display how the 2011-2013 BTC fractal is matching this latest bull run, not by time as so many try and force, but by vertical price action levels on a log graph. I learned of this months ago from Blockchain Backer, so for many this is not new. But I wanted to create a chart that really drives home, that there is a very convincing alternative to the 4 year cycle theory.
BTC top at $80k to $83k
The chart below shows how the 2011-2013 price levels have exactly matched this current bull run, starting from the price bottom for each cycle. First time I saw this, I was really shocked at the exact matching, as per the chart below. You can see that the fractal top gives a BTC price top of $80k to $83k.
Time matching
Notice that time wise (horizontally), there is no correlation, only a similarity in pattern. I purposely stretched and overlaid the 2011-2013 fractal on the above graph from price bottom to mid-point. Why? Because 4 year cycle theorist have used this pattern matching time as justification for the 4 year cycle playing out. Well guess what, it matches for this theory too up to a point just past the mid-point! The difference will reveal itself only at this late stage when bitcoin finally tops.
Weakness in 4 year cycle theory
The 4 year cycle theory may reveal itself to be true. But I'm going to point out a few weaknesses.
1) Remove the 4 year halving lines from a chart, and nothing about the BTC price action on its own shows any kind of time pattern, let alone a 4 year cycle pattern. So these halving lines on these charts are kind of like illusion distractions to what the BTC price action really shows. Remove bitcoin halving lines from a chart, then try and show 4 year cycles by price action alone. I can't see it.
2) No matching time ratios - In the chart above, notice I put time bars at the bottom. If price action is following a time cycle, I would expect to find some type of time ratios or time pattern that match. I couldn't. None.
3) Extrapolation. Anyone who has extrapolated data points on a chart knows, the more points, the more reliable the extrapolation. Well, the 4 year cycle theory only has 1 data point. One! Let that sink in.
Bitcoin will only have two data points (two possible four year cycles) only when this next top is reached, and only if the top is in December. We have only had one 4 year cycle to date.
4) Assumption is made that the miners reward cycle of 4 years has such an effect on the bitcoin market, that the BTC price action will create duplicate time patterns every 4 years. We just don't know that yet due to lack of data points as per point (3).
Conclusion
I'm not claiming I know which theory will be correct. Currently, I lean towards this chart with BTC topping at $80k to $83k. But, I will be watching the BTC NUPL chart. I'll be watching for the last parabolic rise of altcoins. I'll be watching the bitcoin dominance chart ( BTC .d) and altcoin dominance chart ( TOTAL2 ). I'll be watching for a bitcoin double peak at the top as did occur for 2013 and 2017. I'll be watching fibonacci levels. And some other things. Then I'll try and determine if this chart fractal is playing out or if the 4 year cycle chart is playing out. Or perhaps neither.
I gave this chart a theory name as a joke:-) But the chart is not a joke. The chart above combined with the chart below will display how the 2011-2013 BTC fractal is matching this latest bull run, not by time as so many try and force, but by vertical price action levels on a log graph. I learned of this months ago from Blockchain Backer, so for many this is not new. But I wanted to create a chart that really drives home, that there is a very convincing alternative to the 4 year cycle theory.
BTC top at $80k to $83k
The chart below shows how the 2011-2013 price levels have exactly matched this current bull run, starting from the price bottom for each cycle. First time I saw this, I was really shocked at the exact matching, as per the chart below. You can see that the fractal top gives a BTC price top of $80k to $83k.
Time matching
Notice that time wise (horizontally), there is no correlation, only a similarity in pattern. I purposely stretched and overlaid the 2011-2013 fractal on the above graph from price bottom to mid-point. Why? Because 4 year cycle theorist have used this pattern matching time as justification for the 4 year cycle playing out. Well guess what, it matches for this theory too up to a point just past the mid-point! The difference will reveal itself only at this late stage when bitcoin finally tops.
Weakness in 4 year cycle theory
The 4 year cycle theory may reveal itself to be true. But I'm going to point out a few weaknesses.
1) Remove the 4 year halving lines from a chart, and nothing about the BTC price action on its own shows any kind of time pattern, let alone a 4 year cycle pattern. So these halving lines on these charts are kind of like illusion distractions to what the BTC price action really shows. Remove bitcoin halving lines from a chart, then try and show 4 year cycles by price action alone. I can't see it.
2) No matching time ratios - In the chart above, notice I put time bars at the bottom. If price action is following a time cycle, I would expect to find some type of time ratios or time pattern that match. I couldn't. None.
3) Extrapolation. Anyone who has extrapolated data points on a chart knows, the more points, the more reliable the extrapolation. Well, the 4 year cycle theory only has 1 data point. One! Let that sink in.
Bitcoin will only have two data points (two possible four year cycles) only when this next top is reached, and only if the top is in December. We have only had one 4 year cycle to date.
4) Assumption is made that the miners reward cycle of 4 years has such an effect on the bitcoin market, that the BTC price action will create duplicate time patterns every 4 years. We just don't know that yet due to lack of data points as per point (3).
Conclusion
I'm not claiming I know which theory will be correct. Currently, I lean towards this chart with BTC topping at $80k to $83k. But, I will be watching the BTC NUPL chart. I'll be watching for the last parabolic rise of altcoins. I'll be watching the bitcoin dominance chart ( BTC .d) and altcoin dominance chart ( TOTAL2 ). I'll be watching for a bitcoin double peak at the top as did occur for 2013 and 2017. I'll be watching fibonacci levels. And some other things. Then I'll try and determine if this chart fractal is playing out or if the 4 year cycle chart is playing out. Or perhaps neither.
Comment:
Stock to Flow multiple shows BTC to top soon
I was playing around with stock to flow, when I noticed that the stock to flow multiple indicator had a trend line from previous tops. I had never heard of anyone mentioning this before. I have no idea if BTC will top at this trend line again. It is just something I noticed. If it does, then BTC top will occur within then next few months, not in December.
I was playing around with stock to flow, when I noticed that the stock to flow multiple indicator had a trend line from previous tops. I had never heard of anyone mentioning this before. I have no idea if BTC will top at this trend line again. It is just something I noticed. If it does, then BTC top will occur within then next few months, not in December.
Comment:
Actually, BTC in the stock-to-flow multiple could touch the trend line in December if BTC pulls back more or again.
Comment:
Due to the massive dip, BTC would probably hit the trend later in the year 2021.
Here is a chart I created in April 2021 that shows how the 2011-2013 fractal matches the current bull run by price levels on a log chart. Shout out to Blockchain Backer who showed this.