Husain_Zabir
Short

Is Bitcoin correction really over, or is it a Bull trap?

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
isn't that happen too quickly, i mean just before around 40 days bitcoin prices pumped meteorically from 4200 to 4800 on a rumor of a fake news which was circulated as april fool joke that SEC approves Bitcoin's ETF , and weird thing is that no one panics even after this news was refute. recently we've also seen the tether fud which could have great impact on prices, but simply nothing happened, prices just kept gone pushing higher and higher. clearly big money is buying aggressively right now and most likely this volume is coming from stock market.

recently S&P500 has made it's ath around 2950 and lots of investors are taking advantage of this rally and cashing out their profits, why? if you look at current situation of geopolitics you'll see the US-China trade war and tensions between US & Iran both of this situation has put the markets under heavy pressure and fear, fear of a war in middle east and ongoing trade war with China.

so which must be the best asset for this freshly released money from stock markets? clearly Bitcoin , three imp reasons, undervalued, high liquidity and massive growth potential due to limited supply. obviously gold , silver and other precious metals are also good option, but Bitcoin is Bitcoin .

now am not saying that this is the major reason of bitcoin's rally, that's my own hypothesis, but this could be a major reason most likely. now for a minute if we assume that above theory is the major cause than this rally is the result of fear in stock markets. that means big money which is cashing out could be wrong, and i think probably this rally will end up like a bull trap and we'll see another major low in future, i'll explain it but first don't assume that i am bearish on Bitcoin definitely not, actually most of the analysts including me will tell you that the next major bull run in Bitcoin has started and it confirmed after prices broke and hold 6450 level, and am 60% sure on this, but now we're looking on other side of coin.

this rally in bitcoin could fail if stock markets keep moving forward which mostly depends on geopolitics and policies of trump administrations. now I personally think that Donald Trump won't take decisions which are not in favor of markets and economy, coz he had already said earlier that, "war in middle east was a big fat mistake", i think Trump is putting pressure on China and Iran, so he can make better deal with his own terms. you'll get this point if you read the book "The Art of The Deal" by Donald J Trump. if you read this book you'll see that Donald trump likes to create leverage, he likes to have psychological advantage over his opponent.

note this points from the book,
"My style of deal making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm after"
"The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead"

clearly from above points we could assume what Trump administration is actually trying to do, they keep pushing and pushing with trade war and sanctions against China and Iran, until they became so desperate to deal with the US. If Trump administration succeed to make a fair deal with Iran and China, which I hopefully they do, than stock markets will again start to emerge and most likely we could see a huge dump in Bitcoin .

now moving towards the chart as you can see that we've completed the first supercycle of Bitcoin and now most likely we're in ABC major corrective wave. now if the ABC corrective wave has ended on 3200 level in Dec 2018, note that this whole major correction took 364 days to complete, whereas corrective wave 4 of 2014-15 took 630 days, that means wave 4 was 1.73x larger than whole ABC corrective wave, now it's not violating the Elliot wave rules but usually that doesn't happen, you'll also notice that ABC corrective wave was the shortest correction -84%, whereas wave 2 retraced -93% and wave 4 retraced -86%.

talking about the moving averages you'll see that in wave 4 (2014-15) prices drop to 200 SMA than rallied to 55 EMA and fall back to 200 SMA retested support levels and then rallied for wave 5. but nothing like this happened in 2019, prices fall towards 200 SMA and then rallied, break 55 EMA , most of the analysts were expecting a drop from 4200 level to retest 200 SMA , but that doesn't happen.

now things like this in chart analysis creates doubt on price movements, I see there's a probability of a double zigzag formation, and probably we're now in wave X which goes against the trend and end up as a Bull trap. a normal Wave X goes upto 61.8% of total ABC corrective wave or the wave W, which in this case is around 13500, so the current price movement can go upto 13500 level and if the wave X ends up there than a new wave Y will start from there. usually major corrective waves ends at the top of wave 3 or the bottom of wave 4. but I think that the top of wave 3 around 1100 could be the end of wave Y, or the major bottom of Bitcoin , but if this theory is correct than this whole process could take upto 2 years to complete, and than probably we could see the next major bull run in Bitcoin .

thanks for reading, this is Husain Zabir signing out...
Wow...great analysis..Husain Sir....Its almost like Bitcoin following your path....Supreb
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Nailed it!
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One thing I can assure you Russia US war is off the table for a little while yet. The Russians have upped the anti too much and so we will not attack yet.
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Thanks Husain do you have a Cliff notes version?
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Hi Husain, Do you still think it´s posible to get to Y (1100)?
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I highly respect this analysis and believe it could be true although there are many variables which drive both markets. You mentioned the trade war with China which could drive the stock market higher with a deal but I believe thats already built into the current stock market. Theres going to be a deal regardless whether its short term or long term so theres no reason for investors to be waiting on the sideline with piles of cash for a deal. The other thing you forgot to mention is BTC halving in May 2020. From previous BTC market actions this has always driven up the price of BTC before and after the halving event. What are your thoughts on this analysis with BTC halving in 2020 and the trade war being already prices into the stock market? Also what are your thoughts on the crypto market when a trade deal is completed? Some analysis think China is hiding funds in crypto cause the trade war and the threat of a lower dollar which can also stir up the pot...

Again thank you for your analysis and hard work, its greatly appreciated!
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Quite a good call so far
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Check out Come T crypto he also using EW was able to know that the current bottom would be around 3150 and the current top of 2019 13.5k published on Jan 21 2019, instead of your wxy he has an ABC correction to around $500 check out his video and his previous charts. .If this is correct then cloning btc with the bars pattern we come to the bottom next summer, then begins the bull run? I don't know what happen to him if anyone knows let me know. Don't get discourage this will be a great opportunity to buy btc between $500 and $1800. Encourage others to sell quickly so we can all by btc at a sale price. Have a blessed day and be careful. Where can I short btc legally in the US?
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@hpombo, hell yeah, am completely amaze how similar this guy thinks as me, thanks for sharing, this guys is really ahead of his time
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interesting to read the comments... you know sometimes I wish this scenario happens; it will give a lot of people the chance to buy bitcoins... But where do you think the highest we can reach during this bull. thank you very much.
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