Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) appears to have completed a correction phase and is now showing signs of beginning its final leg higher. The entire corrective structure ended at ₹234.01. From there, a clear five-wave impulsive rally began, marking the beginning of Wave 1 of a new trend. After a brief correction as Wave 2, the stock surged again to ₹325.85, completing Wave 3. What followed was a contracting triangle, unfolding as an A-B-C-D-E pattern—suggesting a typical Wave 4 consolidation.
The breakout from this triangle came with a strong bullish candle, supported by a spike in volume. Price has now convincingly moved above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day MA serving as a platform for the triangle structure itself. This alignment of price, structure, and moving averages supports the hypothesis that Wave 5 has just begun.
MACD has triggered a fresh bullish crossover, adding confirmation to the momentum buildup seen after the triangle breakout. The structure remains valid as long as the price holds above ₹308.25, which marks the end of Wave 4 and serves as the key support level. Additionally, the 50-day moving average (MA50) sits just below, offering another layer of dynamic support. A sustained hold above these zones keeps the bullish bias intact and supports the ongoing development of Wave 5.
Wave 5 targets lie near ₹369.95, which is the 1.0 extension of the Wave 1 length projected from the Wave 4 low. Any pullback toward the breakout zone near ₹308–₹315 could offer a low-risk entry opportunity as long as the structure remains valid.
Chart will be updated as price action evolves.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
The breakout from this triangle came with a strong bullish candle, supported by a spike in volume. Price has now convincingly moved above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day MA serving as a platform for the triangle structure itself. This alignment of price, structure, and moving averages supports the hypothesis that Wave 5 has just begun.
MACD has triggered a fresh bullish crossover, adding confirmation to the momentum buildup seen after the triangle breakout. The structure remains valid as long as the price holds above ₹308.25, which marks the end of Wave 4 and serves as the key support level. Additionally, the 50-day moving average (MA50) sits just below, offering another layer of dynamic support. A sustained hold above these zones keeps the bullish bias intact and supports the ongoing development of Wave 5.
Wave 5 targets lie near ₹369.95, which is the 1.0 extension of the Wave 1 length projected from the Wave 4 low. Any pullback toward the breakout zone near ₹308–₹315 could offer a low-risk entry opportunity as long as the structure remains valid.
Chart will be updated as price action evolves.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Note
After the impulsive breakout that likely marked Wave (i), today's pullback might be setting the stage for Wave (ii) within the larger Wave 5 structure. Price has pulled back sharply, but remains above the key invalidation level of ₹308.25. As long as this level holds, this dip could be part of a correction before Wave (iii) unfolds. Traders should watch for signs of support or bullish reversal near this zone for further confirmation. 
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WaveXplorer | Elliott Wave insights
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.