It has been a while since my last post, but nothing fundamental has really changed. We are still within the triangle,but in the upper region none the less, an overall upwards is still holding.
What is really interesting now is if that upper (marked in gold ) is going to hold this coming week.
The , and are showing some signs that the momentum is not that strong, and in combinations with the stock market; I believe we will see a dip in the BTC / Euro price.
The dip will retest 7038, and let us see what happens after that.
when it comes to my own plans in these times, nothing changed from my previous posts, I have already liquidated some parts of my BTC holding in waiting for a dip, and I am patient.
Probably will pick up some at 7038, but checking to see if it holds before entering.
I have been writing about a second financial wave (downward wave) coming, and still believe it is coming and we are seeing the very beginning of it now.
Since BTC has not yet been decided as a safe hedge, I do not know how BTC will perform during the second wave; but I believe BTC will rise after the second wave has washed over.
For you guys that are going nuts about the behaviour of the stock market, and it is not really acting logically to what is happening in the market. Prices not reflecting the actual market, gold going down, companies that are hit hard by lock-down are still having increase in stock price, etc...
There are three things I have noticed that I want to share with you great guys, and take it for what it is; just a theory!
- Traders selling good performing stocks to cover their losses. One of the cardinal rule in trading is to be in the market one way or another (can be in currencies or other assets). One way of doing that, other than bringing more fresh cash, is to sell assets that you have profit on to cover the losses you had. You never know when those performing assets go down, so it is important to take out profit when you can. This can result in safe harbour assets such as gold can drop in price, or hot bio-tech companies drop in price.
- Fund Managers are obliged to rebalance their portfolios to keep the asset allocation and exposure to risk correct to their fund profile. This is kinda related to the one on top, but fund managers sit on HUGE amount of value and when they start to rebalance their portfolios to cover losses or to keep true to their fund strategy, it can really affect the price in markets. What is fund strategy (asset allocation) to do in this? well, let us say that a fund has a strategy to be in 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If that fund have hit a golden goose and have great return on some stocks, it will have to rebalance in order to keep within 60-40 strategy of their total asset holding value.
- Stock market is based upon beliefs and feelings, and not logic. Also it is not reacted to the current time, but what they expect in future. The market is a place for feelings, and additional guessing what will happen in the near future or long term future. These estimation of the future will constantly be re-valued by the current news but will not necessary act on it the way it logically might seem to be doing.
- Monetary stimulus like new money being printed and thrown into the market like in US. The Fed buying up all it can, regardless if it is a fallen angel or what have you. This will give impression the market is holding, when in reality it is a facade.
As always guys, stay safe and may the trading be with you!