EuroMotif

BTC bounced EXACTLY from mapped support, but is it the "Bottom"?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Part of my ongoing analysis of Bitcoin moves (see links below).


The pullback was fast and furious, but it bounce Precisely from the last polot.
Now we need to see if it was the "Bottom", or if a further set of waves are due.
The bounce thus far looks quite bullish , but still a bit early to gauge targets for it.

It is POSSIBLE that our ABC correction is done.
It it PROBABLE that we see on more dip still.
It is PLAUSIBLE that downtrend has resumed.

$ 8995-9036 (9k) is the obvious key resistance.
$ 9295-9335 remains a MAJOR hurdle to cross.
$ 9895-9928 will be bears last defense of 10k.

$ 8595-8666 is immediate and STRONG support, must hold.
$ 8002-8075 is quite possible to reach and end correction.
$ 7554-7608 is will be Bulls last defense of this uptrend.

If you see blurry numbers in chart, that is a TV Rendering bug.
Click here for a SnapShot, hopefully with more clear numbers.
Comment: Opps, just realized the links to previous plots did not make it.
Here is my last plot that caught the bounce EXACTLY
Comment: Approaching Moment of Truth

Here we are about to test the 9k zone
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Zoom IN (1h) for a closer look at that bounce: Beautiful double Ping on subsequently higher fibs.
A very bullish sign, making it more likely that WAS the bottom.
But as we know, a quick dump can change all such perceptions.

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Zoom IN (15 min) for a closer look at Resistance: $8968 solo fib the outer layer of 9k resistance.
Surely everyone in the world is watching 9k.
US banks and stock market open in 5 hours, after holiday weekend.

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SUMMARY:
- The bounce looks stronger that I first expected.
- Another leg down NOT ruled out yet, but a little less likely.
- Tuesday NY session may well determine the next long term move.

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Comment: First Target Surpassed.

Hit the first "X" target almost exactly Initially rejected back to support.
and now progressing towards extended target.

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Zoom IN (15 min) and adding a Fib + EW: That sure looks like a "Wave 3" that just ran.
And so we can expect wave 4 down then w5 up.
And all of the ratios fit perfectly into the heart of next resistance.

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BUT, it is actually possible that wave 3 is NOT DONE yet? Current price action is not yet behaving like a wave 4.
So maybe wave 3 is not quite done yet, and maybe it will run into the resistance itself.
If so, we can then expect a long lasting wave 4 (sideways for a day or two).
Then we can imagine a wave 5 going to $9500 zone!

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SUMMARY:
- 1st bounce target was hit, reacted, and was conquered.
- 2nd bounce target looks likely to hit.
- Also possible that we hit original 2nd target with a wave 3
- If the above, then expect a long lasting w4 and possible w5 target of $9500 range.
- All in all this more bullish than I had anticipated, but tops often do that: look great until the crash :(


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Comment: Ping #2 and Moment of Truth
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Comment: Looking at this last wave again It seems 9350 is likely target.
9500 not out of the question either.

Many people (including me) think this is "done" now.
But that may be exactly why it goes up more, so am not out yet.
Trailing a stop now, keeping a fib between price and my SL.

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Comments

There we go !
It just hit 9100 !!!!
Reply
bought 8700 sold 50% @9000 will sell balance @9300 :)
Reply
EuroMotif 49689654d79740e8bda4f94176fd3a
@49689654d79740e8bda4f94176fd3a, Well played! congrats.
Reply
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Reply
Amazing, Thank you
Reply
Thanks as always for the precision to the charts and your dedication to helping and educating others.
I have a question for you. Is this ABC correction part of your Wave 4?
Reply
EuroMotif RTurner090
@RTurner090, Hello friend, and thanks for your continued support.
and Yes, I think this correction is probably wave 4, as posted in this other Idea The "rules" for wave 4 are:
1) it should be a three wave structure (abc)
2) It can not encroach into wave 1 (we have plenty of room even below last low), and
3) It should alternate in depth and duration to the wave 2 of same structure. We had a somewhat shallow and quick wave 2, so we can exepct a somewhat deep and long lasting wave 4.
+1 Reply
RTurner090 EuroMotif
@EuroMotif, Isn't another rule that Wave 4 should not retrace 50% of Wave 3?
Reply
EuroMotif RTurner090
@RTurner090, not sure about "should not retrace 50%", but that would be far less busllish/bearish than the average retrace which is .382 of w3/
I have seen many examples where w4 almost touches top of w1 and still continues to a w5, albeit in such case w5 barely surpasses w3 top.
ETH.usd in particular likes its w4 to kiss w1 pretty often, fwiw....
Reply
might be just some retracement to liquidate and proceed downwards. Might bounce back down of the 8900
Reply
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