alanmasters

Bitcoin Weekly | New ATH After... $6.3K or $4.7K 2020 Bottom?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) reached a peak price in late June... Old news, and moved down to test EMA10...

After some consolidation, EMA10 was broken and now Bitcoin's price is trading just above EMA50.

Looking at the bearishness of this chart, EMA50 can breakdown next just as EMA10 broke.

If this level breaks, the next support is sitting at around $6,350 or EMA100.

From this level, we can expect a strong bounce and a nice run until Bitcoin's price starts to drop in preparation for the 2020 Halving hype. This bounce can push BTC over $11,111...

The halving will be promoted as an event that will push Bitcoin to new highs and many beginners will start buying en-mass... Bitcoin will crash hard and only after the halving it will start a new slow and steady growth process.

This is of course just one scenario based on past history, chart signals, and experience.

After EMA100, we also have EMA200 (orange) & MA200 (black), these are the strongest support levels based on these indicators and where the reversal happened back in December 2018.

It is also possible that MA200 is tested again and I believe this to be the lowest price possible for Bitcoin in 2020. That is around $4700 USD.

I am not saying that Bitcoin will go this low next year, instead, if EMA100 does break then this is very likely where the bottom will be.

I think the ~$6000 area is very important in deciding if Bitcoin goes lower or if it reverses... It all depends on how this level is handled.

There will be lots and lots of changes coming up worldwide in 2020. There will be many life-changing events affecting each and every one of us.

So it is hard to go that far without knowing how big and with who is going to be the next war.

After the 2020 low is hit... Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) will move to new highs and grow for years to come.

That's my prediction...

Don't think so?
Do you agree?

Well... If you have so much to say... Please share your charts and thoughts with us in the comments section below.

Namaste.
Comment: BCHZ19 (+31%)

SPNDBTC (+163%)

GVTBTC (+79%)

ADXBTC (+84%)
Comment: RCNBTC (+309%)
Comment: Bitcoin On The Daily Time Frame | A New Possibility Emerges

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Comments

This chart seems like a solidly pessimistic projection totally inconsistent with price action behavior of bitcoin preceding the two past halvings.
People are getting ironically greedy now that they've seen BTC drop from $10k to $8k, and now that they all got burned they want crazy low value bitcoin that will never happen, because there are too many institutions now getting involved buying in these ranges around $8k. For Bitcoin to be $5k post halving is just ridiculous.
These are only my opinions.
I love your work anyway thanks for charting the possibility!
+2 Reply
alanmasters magemushroom
@magemushroom, Thanks. I appreciate your opinion a lot... The halving always results in a drop in prices... This is just based on past history.

Prices increase after the halving and some time before. But not right before the halving nor right after... Normally before the halving, there is a strong decline in prices.

See the LTCBTC example in my profile. People were expecting an increase in prices and it ended up moving lower both vs USD and BTC.

Namaste.
Reply
magemushroom alanmasters
@alanmasters,

"The halving always results in a drop in prices... This is just based on past history."

Correct, but not to 25% the price of the previous ATH. That's not in the charts.
At max, Bitcoin retraces to 50.0% fib line in the past two post halving scenarios before it builds consolidation along the 23.6% fib line.

"Normally before the halving, there is a strong decline in prices."
Not really. I guess it depends on how you want to define strong decline.
The fact is prior to every halving in the past bitcoin has achieved at least 75% or so if it's previous ATH before a dump after the halving.
And then after this dump of about 30% -40% then the real bull run commences and within 6-12 months of every halving a new ultimate ATH for Bitcoin is achieved.

S/F model of Bitcoin will give a ratio of 100 to Bitcoin in May 2020 which according to the math gives a figure of a minimum of $55,000 BTC.
Gold has an SF ratio of 62. In only 6 months, Bitcoin will become officially the scarcest commodity/resource/asset ever seen on Earth, the hardest and soundest money we've ever created.

So as a side note when I see predictions of $4k, $5k, $200, $2k, $6k I feel sorry for these people.
Their greed to accumulate at lower prices will transform in equal measure to fear when the opportunity to buy the bottom is realized to be long gone, but by then, it'll be too late.
+1 Reply
magemushroom magemushroom
@magemushroom, Well I shouldn't be so dramatic. Of course it's never too late to buy bitcoin.
Reply
Thank you for sharing your longer term view. 4700 seemed impossible a few weeks back, now just an extreme but totally possible outcome.
I have "faith" in the 6000 level : it could be the miner's bottom, as explained by filbfilb's articles here on TV. I Also published my own scenario just yesterday, link to the article just below. I'm investigating the idea that we could have a Cup & Handle forming, like in all previous cycles.
+2 Reply
alanmasters Harry_Seldon
@Harry_Seldon, Thanks a lot for sharing, appreciated.
+1 Reply
alanmasters Harry_Seldon
@Harry_Seldon, I like your chart and your scenario is completely possible and valid.
+1 Reply
alanmasters nagihatoum
@nagihatoum, Thanks for sharing.

There are hundreds of copycats out there... We handle them one by one and we will get to that one in time.

Thanks a lot for your support, truly appreciated.

Namaste.
+2 Reply
mbpump alanmasters
@alanmasters, this time i will do what you say
Reply
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