Papou

Bitcoin 2017 in-depth (MUST read)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Many are completely blind to how the market works and what is going on. They fall prey to the news, groups, the bitcoin maximalists and everybody who tells you "just hodl" because these markets arent liquid enough for everybody to eat. There is a clear method to the madness and hopefully everybody can learn something from this. Bitcoin has had an amazing run in 2017; bull run of the century and it all started in March. After the denial of a downtrend with the ETF upset, Bitcoin was validated as a threat to the establishment. We rode on a rocket line trend, right to the 4.764 extension of the retracement denial as seen here
Note once the trend was established, we formed a nice elliot impulse set as the market began to get impulsive. Trends are everything in crypto, and the easiest way to know when to take profit and when to rebuy. (Things go parabolid from trend, take profit and look to rebuy on the trend and support it). Once the trend breaks, its over, and the market WILL correct. How that correction plays out is what determines if we continue on or not.
As we can see, the retracement held the classic bullish 0.618. This is the tell-tale sign that the market wants to continue on. As we respected the 1d cloud and completely confirmed support by those 2 indicators, the market broke out of the downtrend, flagged out to signal to the smart money that we are good to go and we continued on.
The retracement of that flag set us on another nice trend where we get once again a elliot impulse wave set as everyone's emotions are running high and peaked this time at the 2.618. Once the trend broke, signal to get out, market gives you a nice second top to sell at the top of the B wave in the ABC correction and down we go.
Measuring the retrace we once again held the bullish 0.618 retracement . Wait, is the market really doing the exact same things and behaving the same way again? No way...you don't say?????......Strong 1d cloud support as well, market denies further downside and shows its ready to keep boogying. Emotions are still high, everyone is a genius at this point and the next wolf of wallstreet. Blind luck is guiding them since they don't understand the true way the market works. This time the market slowly just casually creeps up to the ATH where many think a double top is coming, however there is a bigger picture being painted... and here we are.
The bigger picture is that there were/are LARGER elliot waves being painted and once again on a trend. Lets take a closer look at this third wave.
So immediately we can see we have perfectly tagged the 1.618 this time. Understand as we further ascend in price, each top on the following waves will be smaller fib extensions because the price is too expanded at this point in retrospect. Ofcourse we can have some pretty gnarly waves, especially for a 5 wave, but understand Bitcoin is a 100 billion dollar market now and it takes ALOT of fiat to move at this point and more and more as we continue on. I know we dont have a classic blow off top like we usually do, but like I said, its taking quite a bit of money at this point and where will this money come from? Plenty of people have been blindly rode to riches and now its time for them to lose. Could we still go further, possibly. We will have to see how this correction now plays out. If it holds in a bullish 0.618 as shown above, then yea we might just keep playing the same ole game. However it would be history in the making if we made another elliot wave past 3, especially where we are in price. Many things are drying this up as well. ICO bans and regulations coming, volume decreasing, the general sentiment on Bitcoin and the governance issues.
Continuation in comments/post too long.


Comment: Remember if the trend breaks and we dont hold, this will all pan out as drawn. Now there are two possible scenarios. A bullish retracement of this entire move or a bearish one.
Bullish
Bearish
What happens is all dependent on what fibs the retracements hold. All this compltely coincides with alts taking over as their massive realized profits need to be realized and sold in Bitcoin for the most part. Plus you will have some people just being completely emotionally tortured and fearful.
Comment: Move has potential to continue but very doubtful. If it does, it will be parabolic, wave 5 would just be extended on the big picture and retracement potentials moved up. Either way if you have been trading BTC past year and seeing the market for what it was and playing the swings, you can just sit back right now and let other people figure it out.

Related Ideas

Comments

I think your analysis is spot on mate both fundamentally and technically; thanks for sharing.
+1 Reply
Papou tuamen
@tuamen, just trying to show people how the game is played. This entire move was set in place from 2014, whoever didn’t see it coming didn’t know where to look or how to look at it. Each wave was classically painted and easy to predict. Even selling the top of B if you missed selling top of 5 was easy.
Reply
So I guess we can call this, in any case, a crash (bullish or bearish).

In your opinion, what is the effect on the alts: will they follow, losing their value in BTC ? Will they keep their value in BTC, losing only their value in $ ?
+1 Reply
Pierrus Pierrus
By the way, thank you, that's very informative.
Reply
Papou Pierrus
@Pierrus, alts will absorb the market cap of bitcoins fall. the fiat is already in crypto, its just gonna shift around.
+1 Reply
Pierrus Papou
@Papou, couldn't newcomers be scared, and just sell their BTC for $ at loss ?
Reply
arandy Papou
@Papou, how are you so sure people won't go back to fiat? It happened before ir could happen again right. I hope that it will go into alts though.
Reply
Papou arandy
@arandy, there is no reason to at this point. Plenty of volume now, plenty of market cap. Mostly everyone is going in on BTC for alts/icos...btc was just the largest and most liquid fiat gateway but I think eth is taking that away soon enough. Most likely many Alts will absorb btc market cap.
+1 Reply
Thought provoking chart work.
Reply
Been linking some people to this post... really great write up and use of EW/Fib to demonstrate how these patterns manifest in the market. Thanks for sharing.

I'm wondering if you agree with this count taking into account the market moves that have transpired since your post. Thoughts??

Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out