Primary Chart: BTC's Long-Term Upward Trendline that Has Held as Support since 2013 (Weekly Log Chart)
BTC Appears to be holding right at a long-term trendline that has held as strong support since 2013. The chart above is a logarithmic chart, which can help present a more accurate perspective of price action and price relationships when the chart covers a great deal of price history that spans a significant range of values.
The decline since the all-time high has been severe, but relative to BTC's entire price history as shown on the log chart, in percentage terms, the bear-market decline looks less severe than it does on the regular, linear-scaled price chart.
On the linear chart, BTC's decline has also reached key make or break levels determining whether the recent corrective bear rally will continue or whether new lows will be reached sooner than later. The Fibonacci Retracement levels below must hold if BTC is to avoid—at least in the next few weeks—heading back to test lows or make new lows. If the retracement levels below do not hold or are not recaptured—specifically the .618 R (which has already been broken this past week) and the .786 R, then BTC likely will be testing lows soon.
Supplementary Chart A: BTC's Fibonacci Retracement Levels Near Term
But the long-term trendline should also be watched. Given it's significance, it may be retested even if broken, making for frustrating trading for bears / bulls alike.
Good luck trading this week everyone.
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Price continues to meet and fail at the 20,488 level where the .618 retracement lies.
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Although BTC moved slightly below the long-term logarithmic trendline (and these trendlines can always be drawn slightly above or below where they are drawn and still be valid), BTC has been stabilizing in a range around this trendline. Price appears to be retesting the logarithmic trendline today.
But price must exceed about $21,500 to $22,000 to recoup the trendline today and tomorrow. The level where the price must reach to recoup the trendline continues to rise as each day passes.
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Update:
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This is interesting. The log-based trendline for BTC's entire price history was published in September 2022 before it broke such TL to the downside. Hit the refresh arrow on the Primary Chart above to see what is happening with this trendline now. It appears to be a critical retest.
For those getting uber bullish after BTC's impressive run off of lows (short-term to intermediate-term bullish), you may want to see more proof of BTC exceed this TL (and holding decisively above) rather than just stall here or whipsaw around it on a retest! This presents an interesting level in any case that I had forgotten to check on in recent weeks.
thanks for sharing. your idea and explanation is great and easy to swalloed. thanks man!
SquishTrade
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@zuemuskha, Thank you for reading the post and commenting!
Tradersweekly
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Thanks for sharing. For the immediate term, it is bullish as many people will try to buy at the trendline. However, the bigger scheme of things with the FED pursuing the destruction of demand has not changed. Unfortunately, it draws a grim picture over the coming months. But that is just my opinion; I might be wrong. It is always good to see some rational counterarguments to mine; indeed, you are one of the very few people providing these. Thumbs up for that; I wish you the best with your trades.
SquishTrade
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@Tradersweekly, I appreciate your comment, and I agree with you 100%. I think BTC could chop around this line for a bit, break below and back above a few times as buyers and sellers battle it out. :)
Longer-term (next 4-6mo) I still wouldn't be surprised at all to see $12-13K, maybe even 8K.
Tradersweekly
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@BurningTheta, Me too. Thanks for the feedback!
SquishTrade
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@Tradersweekly, Your arguments are always excellent, and have many times been excellent calls this year even when many were going the other way. Regarding sensible counterarguments, I feel that I'm probably more aligned with your views in general than offering counterarguments (perhaps the in the short-term they are counter-arguments given your view that we move to lows quickly), but I've just been trying to see how irrational and corrective the patterns may become.. Lately it's impossible to know what's happening next with the way the market has chopped and whipsawed. I always appreciate your well-analyzed views as well :)
Tradersweekly
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@BurningTheta, Yes, but for every bullish scenario, you have facts or some rational explanation. You do not just shout "to the moon, on gang!" or similar crazy stuff. Unfortunately, we can not forecast everything correctly, but one can continuously improve over time. I agree; one would argue that markets have become more challenging to predict and trade over the past three years.
TheNewsCrypto
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Great Study, Keep it up man
SquishTrade
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@TheNewsCrypto, Thank you! I appreciate your comments / support
bnpascu
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That trend line is irrelevant. Move on 11 or 13 weeks. The entire move is a curve, such trendlines were broken in every bear before!