✅ Market Structure
Overall, the market structure on the H4 timeframe exhibits a complex character — a mix of an uptrend that is starting to lose momentum and a distribution/consolidation phase.
Starting from a low of around $65,500–$66,000 in late March 2026, the price moved impulsively upward following a clearly defined ascending trendline on the chart.
This trendline acted as dynamic support, successfully holding the price down several times before the price action entered a more volatile phase in mid-April.
The Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) structure formed well, leading the price to peak around $79,500–$80,000 around April 17–18.
However, after that, the price failed to maintain its bullish momentum and began forming lower highs in the $79,000 area, which signaled an early weakening of the uptrend structure.
Currently, the price is around $78,243, which means it remains above several key support zones, but has not yet managed to make a convincing breakout above the main resistance.
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✅ Resistance Zone:
- The first most relevant resistance is located in the $79,000–$79,500 area, which is the previous HH area and has repeatedly served as a price reversal point.
- Above this, strong resistance is located at $80,000–$80,500, which coincides with the upper boundary of the ascending trendline and is psychologically a very significant round level.
✅ Support Zone:
- The first support is clearly visible in the $74,000–$74,500 zone, marked by the shaded gray zone on the chart — this area has been tested twice (around April 17 and April 27) and successfully bounced strongly, confirming it as a solid demand zone.
- The next support is at $71,000–$71,500 (a deeper shaded zone), and major support is at $70,000, which is an important psychological level.
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✅ Primary Wave Count (from the low of $65,500):
Wave 1 formed from the bottom around $65,500 (late March) and rose to around $73,000–$73,500 in early April — this was a fairly strong first impulse wave following the ascending trendline.
Wave 2 then corrected to around $70,500–$71,000, which is a 50–61.8% retracement of Wave 1, entering the shaded support zone shown on the chart.
Wave 3 was the longest and strongest wave, starting at $71,000 and moving impulsively to a high around $79,500–$80,000 in mid-April — this is consistent with the characteristics of Wave 3, which is the most powerful wave in a cycle.
Wave 4 then occurred as a correction from $80,000 down to the $74,000–$74,500 zone (the demand zone), forming a complex corrective pattern (possibly a zigzag or flat) — note that Wave 4 did not overlap the top of Wave 1, so this wave count remains valid.
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✅ Conclusion & Trading Plan
Overall Bias: BULLISH with High Caution (Conditional Bullish)
Overall, BTCUSD remains bullish on the H4 chart as long as the $74,000–$74,500 demand zone remains unbroken.
The current price position is likely part of the ongoing Wave 5, with potential targets at $81,000–$83,000.
However, the failure to maintain $76,000 and signs of weakening RSI require traders to avoid being blindly bullish and to always have a clear risk management plan.
Overall, the market structure on the H4 timeframe exhibits a complex character — a mix of an uptrend that is starting to lose momentum and a distribution/consolidation phase.
Starting from a low of around $65,500–$66,000 in late March 2026, the price moved impulsively upward following a clearly defined ascending trendline on the chart.
This trendline acted as dynamic support, successfully holding the price down several times before the price action entered a more volatile phase in mid-April.
The Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) structure formed well, leading the price to peak around $79,500–$80,000 around April 17–18.
However, after that, the price failed to maintain its bullish momentum and began forming lower highs in the $79,000 area, which signaled an early weakening of the uptrend structure.
Currently, the price is around $78,243, which means it remains above several key support zones, but has not yet managed to make a convincing breakout above the main resistance.
--------------------------------------------------------
✅ Resistance Zone:
- The first most relevant resistance is located in the $79,000–$79,500 area, which is the previous HH area and has repeatedly served as a price reversal point.
- Above this, strong resistance is located at $80,000–$80,500, which coincides with the upper boundary of the ascending trendline and is psychologically a very significant round level.
✅ Support Zone:
- The first support is clearly visible in the $74,000–$74,500 zone, marked by the shaded gray zone on the chart — this area has been tested twice (around April 17 and April 27) and successfully bounced strongly, confirming it as a solid demand zone.
- The next support is at $71,000–$71,500 (a deeper shaded zone), and major support is at $70,000, which is an important psychological level.
--------------------------------------------------------
✅ Primary Wave Count (from the low of $65,500):
Wave 1 formed from the bottom around $65,500 (late March) and rose to around $73,000–$73,500 in early April — this was a fairly strong first impulse wave following the ascending trendline.
Wave 2 then corrected to around $70,500–$71,000, which is a 50–61.8% retracement of Wave 1, entering the shaded support zone shown on the chart.
Wave 3 was the longest and strongest wave, starting at $71,000 and moving impulsively to a high around $79,500–$80,000 in mid-April — this is consistent with the characteristics of Wave 3, which is the most powerful wave in a cycle.
Wave 4 then occurred as a correction from $80,000 down to the $74,000–$74,500 zone (the demand zone), forming a complex corrective pattern (possibly a zigzag or flat) — note that Wave 4 did not overlap the top of Wave 1, so this wave count remains valid.
--------------------------------------------------------
✅ Conclusion & Trading Plan
Overall Bias: BULLISH with High Caution (Conditional Bullish)
Overall, BTCUSD remains bullish on the H4 chart as long as the $74,000–$74,500 demand zone remains unbroken.
The current price position is likely part of the ongoing Wave 5, with potential targets at $81,000–$83,000.
However, the failure to maintain $76,000 and signs of weakening RSI require traders to avoid being blindly bullish and to always have a clear risk management plan.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.