We can see Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index detaching around the 5th of November, a month ago.
This is an important development because while the SPX moved higher, BTC went down and hit a new low.
The TradFi market is not looking good in the mid- to long-term. Seeing this two detach is positive as Bitcoin cannot be bound by the decisions of the Fed. Bitcoin is borderless, international, the Fed is only USA.
If Bitcoin remains correlated with the SPX, then it would have to stay in a bear market for multiple years more.
Even though have were correlated for a while, we are already seeing evidence of this correlation ending.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency was invented as an alternative to the conventional markets.
Bitcoin is here for the sole purpose to protect us, to give us a different choice, a different option, and alternative, in case the conventional markets go belly up.
We can expect Bitcoin to do its job.
When the worst TradFi bear market in our lifetime shows up, it is very likely that cryptocurrency will still be here and will become the peoples choice.
Let me say this, the bottom might not yet be in, it really makes no difference to us. But we are 100% certain that Cryptocurrency will bottom many times faster than the TradFi market and by the time TradFi bottoms crypto is going to be way up.
It is good to see the SPX and BTC detach because the Fed can continue hiking the interest and this can crash the entire market.
If BTC and the SPX are not moving together, then the rate hikes might not affect BTC.
Just like we are seeing now, more bankruptcy, more bad news, yet Bitcoin continue to do its own thing while many Altcoins have already bottom and have started to increase.
* Late 2022/early 2023 the bottom is confirmed. * Mid 2023 the new bulls confirmed. * 2024 Full bullish wave. * Late 2025 Bitcoin peaks.
Before the next bearish wave we will have a relief rally.
Good points. The sooner big investors and people in general realise that there’s no good reason to throw Bitcoin in the same basket as company shares the better. BTC has bottomed.
@The_Mummy, You have been bullish throughout the whole downtrend, even calling us "schmuck" for our call predicting the top in November 2021. How accurate is this call?
peterbhc
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I have seen the same thing. I am not going to sound too popular, but I do believe BTC bottomed before traditional markets and will move up from here.
AlanSantana
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@peterbhc, The bears are trembling right now and nobody knows why... They seem be furious as well...
LUC_Capital
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Correlation Coefficient also says BTC and S&P 500 have contrasting momentum, so it's possible. "Fed is only USA" is very wrong though, the Fed was the first to raise interest rates early in the year and the entire world followed suit. It's like saying China's economy has no effect on the world, when it is THE number one (or close second) economy in the world.
SwallowPremium
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That’s one possible option, thanks for the post!
Tradersweekly
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Thanks for sharing.
john528walsh
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The Fed is only the US? Are you serious? The Fed's monetary policy impacts all global markets and asset classes, including Bitcoin and crypto. BTC has reacted on every piece of Fed news this year in sync with the other markets. The only difference is that crypto is risky and high-beta, hence why it has severely underperformed all other asset classes this year. We have a perfect example of the Fed's influence today - the stronger than expected ISM PMI read for November and the strong factory order activity in October sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher and the SPX and BTC lower -- the latter from $17,400 to $16 950 in the last few hours. To give you a short lesson, the greenback is the world's reserve currency and US Treasuries are one of the most widely held securities in the world. Fed monetary policy impacts bond yields and the dollar, which has a major impact on commodity prices and borrowing costs. When the Fed tapers QE and tightens monetary policy it removes cheap money from the markets and risk assets get dumped. That's why BTC is down more than 70% this year. If the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, risk assets like bitcoin and crypto will dump lower and lower.