Everyone is so bullish on Bitcoin it hurts

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin has had an incredible recovery from the liquidation cascade/fire-sale back on March 12 which drove the price from 9150 to 3850 in a matter of days. From the lows, we pumped over 160% - insane. But now that everyone is super bullish , a slow bleed downwards wouldn't surprise me, especially considering that the trend seems well and truly over-extended at this point.

However there is no denying that we are in a local uptrend, or that the bulls have reclaimed an important level. There is a very real bullish case to still be made so I can't count that out. In either case I expect that we deviate from this range quickly, otherwise we risk spending a long time grinding sideways + lower. Max pain is usually the way with these markets now that I think about it.

So what is the chart saying?

The MACD is showing a massive bearish divergence. It was already over-extended at 7400, and now seems ridiculous to me.

We are in a rising channel which seems likely to breakdown soon, though we may see a small bounce/scamwick upwards first. If we can break 10k convincingly on a bounce here I'll certainly be jumping in long but I'll be watching closely in case it is a trap and I need to pull out. Otherwise it looks like more pain on the downside will be in order.

Bulls have completely failed to regain any control after the dip on Thursday and have been showing increasing weakness since we rejected the highs at 9900. 9300 has held great as an overhead resistance over the past 2 days, and until that changes, my bias is on the downside and I am positioned accordingly.

Target of a swing long from 10,000 will be to close 50% at 11,600 and 50% at 13,000 and see what happens there (if we get there).

Target of short trade will be 6,900 - will be very flexible depending how price reacts at certain levels.

It's 1am I need to go to bed.

Never over-leverage if you want to stay in this game.

Stay wary.


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