In the past 2 BTC bear markets, shown below, BTC does at least 3 halvings when it crashes, pulling back ~40-70% each time. The last pullback is typically ~60%, marking capitulation.
In the current market we've seen two halvings, and now we're on a third pullback, which could be the capitulation. We seem to have started a leg 4 up, which could run as high as 32-34k before resuming the bear trend for leg 5. ABC after that could drop us as low as 15-17k, but I doubt it lasts long below 20k, if it gets there.
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I like 15-17k now, but could see a 50% bounce here
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I was right again, looking for $10-12k for the last capitulation leg.
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It might not have completed the ABC yet tho
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If it makes a new low, this is what it might look like
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I updated the chart's fibs and EW. Here's a close up
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I would think 15k holds supp for at least a week as a psychological level, but 12k is the 1.6 fib it should settle on. Then maybe a 5th leg setup to 15k and then halve back down again $7500-6200 range.
On the fib channel down, it's running out of room. The 1 down is about zero, but the last support bounced off the .618, which matches with the vertical 2.6 fib of $6200.