Bitcoin futures closed slightly below the $30,000 mark (at $29,910) last Friday. However, the price took a nosedive over the weekend as Binance temporarily halted Bitcoin withdrawals and transfers, citing an overwhelming number of pending transactions. On Monday, Bitcoin futures opened at $29,105 and continued lower toward the $28,300 price tag where they currently trade. We pay close attention to MACD on the daily time frame, which continues to develop a bearish structure. In addition to that, we observe volume levels, which are considerably lower compared to a recent period when Bitcoin was moving sharply higher (in so-called spikes). That is an interesting development as the addresses with more than 100 and 1000 Bitcoins in the balance are not seen growing in number in the past two weeks; meanwhile, the number of addresses with much smaller balances continues to grow, suggesting that retail continues to accumulate. We previously expressed our beliefs that it is very likely that we will see a massive rag-pull being played on retail investors, and that continues to be the case. Our stance remains unchanged as we believe the most deceitful bear market rally continues to unravel. Accordingly, our price target for BTCUSD stays at $15,000 and $13,000.
Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin's continuous futures. If the price breaks below the sloping support, it will bolster the bearish case in the short term. The same applies if MACD performs a crossover below 0.
Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD across various exchanges. We would like to point out the similarity in volume trends on all these exchanges. Volume dropped significantly compared to the two previous major legs up (from around $17,000 to $25,000 and $19,500 to $31 000).
Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Trade active
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Allegedly, cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
Lots of bulls still out there. Almost like the banks collapsing, high interest rates for the next 6 months and high inflation doesn’t count, as people are squeezed out of their money. I think 15-13 might even be too generous.
Free_Loader
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@Patl66 Yeah, right? Same sentiment here. Markets have been calling the Fed’s bluff for the past year in a tit-for-tat. I’m as stumped as you are as to what’s holding markets (and the dollar) together…
Tradersweekly
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@Patl66, We will see. Things are getting hot quickly. Thank you for the comment.
Free_Loader
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Excellent post. I have to be honest and commend you for maintaining that target. Man, if it materializes, that’ll be one hell of a stunning prediction. Moreover, to hold this view despite newly released fake gurus touting 50k, 100k, 150k for BTC nowadays is being headstrong. I too share the view, and we’ll need a massive event to precipitate this. 👍
Tradersweekly
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@Free_Loader, Yes, many people think I am a perma bear because of that. But I am not. It just does not make much sense (to me, at least) that Bitcoin will rise to new ATH with what is really going on in the economy. Thank you very much for following me for so long.
FreshCrypto
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To make matters worse, most Crypto Exchanges are forcing KYC now so I think a lot of retail is going to be withdrawing funds
Tradersweekly
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@FreshCrypto, Yes, it definitely does not add to a bullish case.
HayeTrading
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Nice analysis, cheers 👍
Gold-Tech
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I like your TA method, good analysis)
RLinda
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The information is detailed and quite concise. Thanks for the idea! It would be interesting to know the full list of tools you use in your analysis.