In this analysis, we explore Bitcoin's bearish scenario based on the Wyckoffian logic.
Analysis
- On the right hand side, we have a simple diagram of the market phases developed by Wyckoff. - It's important to remember Wyckoff's emphasis on supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort. - In the accumulation phase, there is a high supply with low demand. - The effect of high supply and low demand is rock bottom prices - The Mark Up phase occurs when the supply of an asset has been diminished - The demand then picks up when retail investors start taking notice of the upside of the underlying asset. - In the Distribution phase, demand stays the same, while supply increases - During the Mark Down phase, supply is at an all time high - Basd on the wyckoffian logic, we are currently at a distribution phase, looking for a Mark Down. - It's also important to note that we have been rejected constantly by the mid resistance of the bollinger band
Market Sentiment:
Long short ratios are at 73 to 27, with exceptional amounts of long and dominant bullish sentiment in the market.
What We Believe
As mentioned previously, a break and close above 10K was imperative for a bullish rally. However, it seems as though Bitcoin is having a hard time with rejection around 9.5k levels too. Interpreting this as a distribution phase, while a test of the 10K levels could definitely be possible, the bearish probabilities are still high, and the corrective scenario remains valid.
Wyckoff had a good strategy)
Bitcoin repeated the Wyckoff cycle a couple of times.
look at my halving look.
XForceGlobal
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@Valeriia_Top, A very convincing Fibonacci channel indeed! Thank you for sharing :)
Slippery09
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I'm excited that I have just recently started studying Wyckoff, and have just found that your chart is marked similar to mine, except for the wicks I think.
Can you advise what method to find a profit target from phase E?
XForceGlobal
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@kryptochristo, For a profit target in phase E, we recommend that you look for significant support/resistance zones that serve as an area of interest for both supply and demand. For a potential breakdown from a distribution pattern, the formation of lower highs in prices could confirm the end of phase E.
VincePrince
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Seems logical,
this is what I will be following at the moment
XForceGlobal
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@VincePrince, Interesting parallel channel you have there! However, we feel like a correction is due, possibly below 9k levels.