Two weeks after halving, expected growth didn't occur and now popular Twitter and Telegram traders divided into two teams: bulls and bears. Let's observe the market, plunge into history and make a decision which team to support.
1. Observing the market
I think that 1D timeframe is enough for us, because all we need to watch is an and two global resistances. Below we have a trend support and a channel support. Every time $BTC trades near $10000, it struggles a lot, and every new growth is weaker and weaker. Selling pressure is too high and it's logical: $10000 is the most important psychological resistance of the recent years. Also it's obvious that the will be broken sooner or later - so why don't we have a healthy correction right now?
Ideally the correction should be the same size as the channel itself and this makes it even prettier: the global target of the move is $7400 - $7500 and look how it looks:
2. The history
I guess almost nobody here remembers 2016 halving. I do. After the halving Bitcoin seemed stable and alts were having a great party. Miners were a bit worried about the price and hash rate was slightly dropping. Sounds familiar, huh? But 3 weeks after the halving, miners capitulated and $BTC lost almost 30%! It correlates with our previous paragraph: this time the possible dip should be a bit above $7000.
All in all, we have some solid arguments to join bears club. Of course this can be a huge trap and there's always a chance to pump hard. That's why I insist that you should open shorts ONLY after breaking the channel support. Perfect entry is a retest of the channel after the breakout, but I'm afraid the market won't give such a chance.
What do you think about my idea? Are you agree or disagree? Share your thoughts and critics in comments!
Key resistance is $8970, the first target is $8500, the second target is $8275.