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Two weeks after halving, expected growth didn't occur and now popular Twitter and Telegram traders divided into two teams: bulls and bears. Let's observe the market, plunge into history and make a decision which team to support.
1. Observing the market
I think that 1D timeframe is enough for us, because all we need to watch is an ascending channel and two global resistances. Below we have a trend support and a channel support. Every time $BTC trades near $10000, it struggles a lot, and every new growth is weaker and weaker. Selling pressure is too high and it's logical: $10000 is the most important psychological resistance of the recent years. Also it's obvious that the ascending channel will be broken sooner or later - so why don't we have a healthy correction right now?
Ideally the correction should be the same size as the channel itself and this makes it even prettier: the global target of the move is $7400 - $7500 and look how it looks:
2. The history
I guess almost nobody here remembers 2016 halving. I do. After the halving Bitcoin seemed stable and alts were having a great party. Miners were a bit worried about the price and hash rate was slightly dropping. Sounds familiar, huh? But 3 weeks after the halving, miners capitulated and $BTC lost almost 30%! It correlates with our previous paragraph: this time the possible dip should be a bit above $7000.
All in all, we have some solid arguments to join bears club. Of course this can be a huge trap and there's always a chance to pump hard. That's why I insist that you should open shorts ONLY after breaking the channel support. Perfect entry is a retest of the channel after the breakout, but I'm afraid the market won't give such a chance.
What do you think about my idea? Are you agree or disagree? Share your thoughts and critics in comments!
Two weeks after halving, expected growth didn't occur and now popular Twitter and Telegram traders divided into two teams: bulls and bears. Let's observe the market, plunge into history and make a decision which team to support.
1. Observing the market
I think that 1D timeframe is enough for us, because all we need to watch is an ascending channel and two global resistances. Below we have a trend support and a channel support. Every time $BTC trades near $10000, it struggles a lot, and every new growth is weaker and weaker. Selling pressure is too high and it's logical: $10000 is the most important psychological resistance of the recent years. Also it's obvious that the ascending channel will be broken sooner or later - so why don't we have a healthy correction right now?
Ideally the correction should be the same size as the channel itself and this makes it even prettier: the global target of the move is $7400 - $7500 and look how it looks:
2. The history
I guess almost nobody here remembers 2016 halving. I do. After the halving Bitcoin seemed stable and alts were having a great party. Miners were a bit worried about the price and hash rate was slightly dropping. Sounds familiar, huh? But 3 weeks after the halving, miners capitulated and $BTC lost almost 30%! It correlates with our previous paragraph: this time the possible dip should be a bit above $7000.
All in all, we have some solid arguments to join bears club. Of course this can be a huge trap and there's always a chance to pump hard. That's why I insist that you should open shorts ONLY after breaking the channel support. Perfect entry is a retest of the channel after the breakout, but I'm afraid the market won't give such a chance.
What do you think about my idea? Are you agree or disagree? Share your thoughts and critics in comments!
Comment:
Bitcoin is breaking the support at the moment. Monday can be bloody.
Comment:
The support levels were successfully broken and candles closed below them. We can retest them and close the GAP at CME at the same time. Good time to start gaining SHORT from now and average up it in case retest happens.
Key resistance is $8970, the first target is $8500, the second target is $8275.
Key resistance is $8970, the first target is $8500, the second target is $8275.
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