Is this just a bear trap?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello and welcome to my technical analysis ,

as expected BTC dumped yesterday after it broke out of the bearflag.

Too bad i wasnt able to short this breakout as i was enjoying real life.. (damn real life).

My target of this bearflag was/is actually still not reached as it is at $8450 (Actually there is a second possible pole, which is shorter and if i would take this pole, the target would have been reached already)

BUT there is one thing which makes me believe, that BTC might not reach this target (Or maybe it will, but then it will bounce back above $8700)

On friday i shared this idea in one of my discord groups:
On that chart above i was looking at the 2D baseline during bullmarket in 2019, as i think, that the PA back then, looks actually so damn similiar as the current PA.

Looking at the 2D Baseline now, Bitcoin bounced PERFECT off that Baseline.
The Baseline is currently at $8630 on 2D Bitstamp and guess what, the lowest price per BTC was also at $8630 yesterday.

Now lets check out that "fwactal" again. And look for similarities:
As you can see, in both situations, BTC made higher lows and both PAs had the same support line (Except that we had a huge wick down which have been bought back up again).

In both situations, BTC was also below the daily baseline.
In 2019, BTC did perfectly close above the support trendline over 6 days. After 6 days, the bounce happened and BTC pumped.
Looking at the current situation, BTC is also above this one major support line, which could mean anything.
If BTC closes AND opens below this support line on the daily, this whole fractal would be invalid (So its worth watching at it)

Doesnt look different. The 4 hourly closed a few times below the support line, but on the end of the day always above!

Lets add an old known indicator called NTV:
In both PA's the NVT looks kind of similiar.
Both had this one resistance line (orange) and that support line (green)
As a addition, the current NVT has a huge support line which starts on the 16th of march

So what should we watch at?
1. BTC should not close and open below that support line at ~$8700. At least not on the 2D.
2. NVT could also show the way, when you use the trendlines .
3. Daily is currently printing a hidden bull div on several indicators. If BTC does confirm here a local bot, we might see a pump to retest resistances at ~ $9060
4. These are my main support/resistance blocks im watching at too.

If you liked my TA, then smash the like button. I hate to ask for it, BUT DO IT! :D

Have a nice day! But dont forget, fractals do rarely play out. I was lucky calling this bounce off that 2D baseline on friday.


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