BTCUSD Short Opportunity – Bearish Channel Resistance Test

Jun 30

Pair: BTCUSD
Timeframe: 4H

I’m planning a short position on Bitcoin based on this well-defined descending channel structure.

🔹 Setup Explanation:
Price has been respecting a downward-sloping channel, with multiple touches at both the upper and lower bounds.

Currently, BTC is testing the upper trendline resistance of this channel near the $108,000–$109,000 area.

This area also aligns with prior supply zones where strong selling pressure emerged.

The recent impulsive move up appears overextended, increasing the likelihood of a technical pullback.

🔹 Potential Reversal Area:
Upper channel boundary: ~108,500–109,000 USD

Confluence with previous horizontal resistance

Weak momentum candles forming near this resistance

🔹 Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: Between 108,000–109,000 (as price consolidates near the channel top)

Stop-Loss: Above 110,000 to protect against breakout and invalidation of the pattern

Target Zone:

First Target (TP1): 104,500 (gray support zone mid-channel)

Second Target (TP2): 97,000 (lower channel boundary)

🎯 Risk-to-Reward:
Targeting a 1:2 to 1:3 R:R, depending on execution

This means risking ~1,500–2,000 points for a potential reward of 4,000–10,000 points

🛡️ Important Notes:
Watch for strong bullish momentum or a clean breakout above 110,000—this invalidates the setup.

Confirm rejection with lower timeframe bearish signals (e.g., bearish engulfing or supply zone rejection).

Be prepared to trail stop after TP1 is hit to secure profits.

✅ Summary:
This setup aims to capitalize on the potential rejection from the upper boundary of a long-standing descending channel, expecting BTCUSD to retest the mid and lower range support zones.

Jun 30

Trade active

📝 BTCUSD Short Update – +1,000 Points in Profit

Timeframe: 4H

Update on my previous short trade idea:

✅ Entry: Near the upper descending channel resistance (~108,500–109,000)
✅ Rationale: Price tested the major bearish channel top and showed signs of exhaustion.
✅ Result: Price has now moved 1,000 points in our favor, validating the channel rejection setup.

🔹 Current Status:
Price is approaching the first support zone (around 106,500–105,000).

Partial profits can be secured here to lock in gains.

Stops can be trailed to breakeven or just above the recent lower high to protect the position.

🎯 Next Steps:
If bearish momentum continues, the next target remains near 97,000 (channel bottom).

Watch for any strong bullish reaction at this support zone as a possible exit or scaling decision.

🛡️ Risk Management Reminder:
Always manage stops and position size based on your trading plan.

Partial profit-taking helps secure gains and reduce risk exposure.

Thank you for following the setup—stay tuned for further updates.

Jul 1

Trade closed: target reached

Jul 1

Note

2500 Points Done