Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Today, we will be assessing the progression of the similarities of Bitcoin's current price action, compared to the bottoming formation that was produced in the bear market of 2015. So, without further ado, let's get right to it!
Looking at the daily BTC chart, we can see that Bitcoin is having a difficult time rising above the 50 EMA (in orange.) This is quite concerning, as far as short term price action is concerned, because when compared to this point in 2015, price had rallied sharply above the 50 EMA. Unfortunately, since I am traveling and posting from my cellphone, I can't post a side-by-side comparison chart. However, you can view my previous comparison analysis, attached below, for reference. So yeah, Bitcoin is struggling to rally above the 50 EMA.
Adding to the slight divergences from the 2015 bottoming formation, we can see that the triangle is extending further than before. If you'll notice, I've actually adjusted the bottom trendline of the triangle from the dashed black trendline, to the solid black trendline at the bottom. I've done this because I'm a bit torn, now that Bitcoin is struggling to rally above the 50. Technically, you can see that where the triangle was originally drawn (black dashed trendline) price has fallen back below it. So, price could continue to trend sideways to lower, but stay inside of this extended version of the triangle, until it actually rises above the 50 EMA.
Let's not forget though, we ARE analysts! We know that the 50 EMA has been powerful resistance, and Bitcoin is continuing to struggle at it. That is not a positive sign. At the same time, a bottoming fractal that matches 2015's bottom has been printed, but we're starting to see some possible deviations from that. So, until price can rally above the 50 EMA my short term view is neutral.
On the MACD, we can see that it is now approaching the zero line. Momentum is slowing down, but it is still currently rising to the upside. On the RSI, we can see that strength was recently rejected at a multi-month resistance level (red horizontal trendline.) Each time that happened, a fall in price occurred next. So, based on that, and the failure at the 50 EMA, there are some reasons to be cautious here.
Overall, there are mixed signals in BTC right now. We may have bottomed already, but indicators are still showing mixed data. Until price can rally above the 50 EMA, providing further confirmation of the 2015 bottoming fractal, I will remain cautiously optimistic that the bottom is in. That's my view, but it's always best to do your own homework. Good luck trading, everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
So we didn’t find bottom? You remind me of my teenager daughter. She always knows everything but mostly she is wrong. Haha.
Beatnutz
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@ChartsOnTime, If you are looking for facts, you won't find them on Tradeview. TA is probabilities. You weigh them against eachother and make a call on what action to take. Nothing @MagicPoopCannon says has been stated as a fact or certainty. He is just giving you options. You remind me of my 5 year old. He hears what I am saying, but nothing sticks. Haha.
Barkworth
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@Beatnutz, so true. Even "real time" is nothing more than a display of everything that has happened, and in reality, doesn't give us anything else than expectations. Expectations for us to speculate on.
Ecua_Trader
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@Beatnutz, I am not against probability but irrelevancy. When you have a need to feed people like you with ideas and dont do it independently then you are forced to be irrelevant. Now he is hinting that we are bearish and we will fall. A few days ago his big title was, "bear is dead" before that the his position was I am buying btc but then a few hours later he posted a chart to short btc. Personally I am still bullish on btc. I havent changed my position since we hit 3100$. On the other hand, going to the casino is also probabilities. If you approach trading and casinos in the same way you will be sleeping under a bridge in a month. Finally, I dont think you can discuss much about the subject. you have not one chart published so my assumption is, you either dont know TA and dont trade or you hope for the Top TAs to give you some kind of direction and trade casino style. lol
Beatnutz
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@ChartsOnTime, what does it matter if I don't have any published charts? Should I bash u for not having a PRO account? Doesn't mean shit man. I'm trading all the time, long and short. Not sure what it has to do with anything regarding what we are discussing but if you are grasping for straws then go ahead.
Ecua_Trader
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@Beatnutz, I had a pro account but it doest mean anything, I rather take that money and trade. I take serious those who actually have some record behind them. That is all. Just cautious when it comes to my time. Thanks for your time.