Break out the party hats and champagne the Crypto market reached 200billion dollars!
"NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS" (LEE CORSO)
Excluding Bitcoin the overall market capitalization is still in bear territory. It is still down 20% from it's all time high. In the past two weeks it has dropped another 5% and only the time the beast (btc) has rallied to new highs! But there is another coin that is contending for market share. BCH' during this same time rallied and gained 2-3% of the overall market cap. So if we take that out and we are actually down 22-23% overall in the alt-coin market. Hardly time to be bullish OVERALL.
Ok take it for what it is worth, I've been calling for a correction since $4500. Then long at $4750 for $6000 where I called for yet another correction. Then $6250 broke and yet another long for $7100. Ouch!! Yes I know it sounds like I'm a perma-bear but I'm really not. Long term I think BTC' moves higher but it takes fresh money to do this and I just do not see it yet! This is not contrary to my BCH' post this morning I just think the two coins will end up providing different means of money transfers, so I'm ignoring segwit at the moment and looking at the fact that BTC' has name recognition by even those not passionate about the space. I watched CNBC yesterday and they were basing BTC's price on new wallets. I think they forgot many are going to private wallets because of the fork, so I am ignoring this fundamental indicator and think it's garbage.
So today I introduce another indicator which is commonly misused. The Stoch RSI. It is a momentum indicator that many use for day trading. (keep this in mind when using it)
I think at this point we have a pretty clear wave count. At least I feel this is a valid one though I have seen one other by marcPmarkets that is valid as well. There are only slight differences to be honest, so you may want to take a look at his chart as well. We currently broke the trend line of the recent rally so it is safe to say we will get a pullback to wave "iv". Now I had this yellow channel up on a previous post as to me this is the trend channel and why I have 3&4 labeled where I do. So why not just say hey we topped that should be the completion of that wave, well looking at wave 5 it is possible, but I wanted to see if there was a clear 5 wave count in this fractal here as well. I'm not sold at least on the 4 hour chart. Normally 3rd waves are the strongest which is why I believe we just completed wave (iii). So I believe we will fall back and retest the channel. Why do I believe this. Let's look at the SRSI and RSI! The stoch is a momentum indicator and often is a PRE indicator to a correction (for day trading). So I adjusted it for the 4 hour chart and I noticed something. Note where the trend broke back into the channel and the labels on the RSI' and SRSI'. Note the SRSI forecast a correction back into the trend channel BEFORE IT HAPPENED. So it's likely probable we enter the channel again. But this is just temporary in my opinion. We still are likely to rally to another ATH' based on the wave count and I marked it around $7600. This is the 2.618 extension from 3 to 4 which has yet to be hit. Now does that mean it has to happen? NO there is one other count around (iii) that we could have double topped already, but I still think with the upcoming fork we should rally one more time.
There may be a day-trade setup around the $6500 range. If we hit $6500 we could maybe look at a trade to $7500 and with a $6250 stop area that provides a nice 1:5 risk reward play. Remember I do not like risk rewards under 4 for BTC as it's too volatile right now. However keep in mind the fundamental game changer. Anything goes wrong with Segwit2x and just crumple up the paper and throw it away. Also look for consolidation and a break of the box. Watch for a pullback which could be a trade killer. But let's get there first, we could go straight to $7500 from here.
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Wow BTC just never ceases to amaze me. Let's see if BCH follow suit!
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Looks like we completed wave (v) in magenta at the $7500 target level. We were hoping to get a pullback to $6500 for a trade to this level but seldom does the market go the way we want. I have updated my count with a final target of 8100ish level which is the extension of wave ii in the larger move which should complete wave III in the long term since 2014. Of course if we can always go higher, or stop short, but the fibb levels have been pretty accurate as of https://late.https://www.tradingview.com/x/m4foNxD4/
6500? Lol Nah... not now. BTC entering parabolic mode and heading for a blow off top leading up to 2X
BCH is trash, stop supporting it
devilninja777
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@devilninja777, If you haven't noticed the dips are getting weaker and recovery has been getting faster over the last 2 months. That should tell you it's entering parabolic mode... so a correction to 6500 right now is unlikely
goldbug1
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@devilninja777, BCH is still the original chain ;) BTC changed to segwit which does not adhere to the Satoshi white paper. This is clear and not disputable. If BCH would have been BTC and BTC would have been bitcoin classic (similar to ETH) then things would probably be role reveresed. By the way up 100%+ in BCH. ;)
I think I mentioned we do not have to correct to $6500 but if it did I would buy long for $7500. If not then I just hold my BTC which by the way took 2 hours to transfer to my trading account! ETH takes minutes!
devilninja777
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@goldbug1, Haha, sorry but that's complete bullshit. I don't think you've done enough digging into this nor read Satoshi's white paper. Up 100% BCH? Good for you for getting something out of a pump and dump, but longterm BCH isn't going anywhere. I'm up 14X on the real BTC, the one which the rest of the community agrees is the real bitcoin hence the price of BTC vs BCH. All the infrastructure, all the development, all the innovation, all the users and all the smart people are with BTC... and you're saying some centralized take-over attempt of BTC with 3-4 hour block times is "the real BTC" just lol....
I'll let it slide because you're new around here, but you'll learn soon enough
goldbug1
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@devilninja777, LOL whether it's BCH or BTC they are both centralized and now run by large mining companies. Hardly the envision of Satoshi. Both are controlled by the few.
But love your comments!!! Thanks getting ready for the radio show, talk to you later!
@devilninja777, You missed the show? It's in my profile ;) Next week we have a great speaker on.
Rosdat
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@goldbug1, Look at the history of the BCH devs.... just read what they post, they are toxic af...
If BTC had bigger blocks then 95% of the nodes would be gone in 6 months, only leaving us with databases... which is what none of the users want but a lot of the big miners do...
Users needs go first.
goldbug1
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@Rosdat, I'm not sure I mentioned BCH here, I seem to get a lot of comments on it though.
Thank you for commenting Rosdat!
htrawitzki
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@goldbug1, BTC is much more a store of value than a daily use currency (at least for now).. People are not holding it because of its name but because it is profitable and much better to hold than gold. Not to mention the 9 years of daily improvements.. We still have a certain degree of centralization and BTC is far for ideal, but if you believe it is ruled my miners you should study a bit more. I also suggest you to study a bit more about BCH's crap team..BCH is not a better tech than BTC at all.. this crap coin is going nowhere.
BCH is trash, stop supporting it