Folks, I came to the realization last night and this morning of two things. Firstly we have formed the predicted head and shoulders and we now have a 1000 point potential drop from the neck line which is around 9k ... so 8k for this next wave. Second is, the waves from 9.99k down to 8.98k and the back up to 9.4k just confused me. I don't want to bore you with detail, but we though a 5 impulse wave followed by an ABC. Weird. Well, it became clear this morning, I was looking at far to small of a time frame. It became clear to me that the impulse down is likely far from over, and we are forming wave 3 now.
The question is where does it stop. If we assume that this down wave is an ABC, BTC could stop soon (anywhere from here - which I doubt - down to around 7750 level, likely 8k to 8.2k). That is the blue wave theory ... which assumes BTC is actually in a grand impulse up and it will start forming wave 3 after this wave down completes.
However, if this is an impulse down, purple wave 3 completes, BTC bounces up a bit and then we fall again to form wave 5 ... that's the grand wave shown in red ... taking us down to the 6.8/6.9k mark, and completing WAVE E of a triangle wave. As you know, wave E is difficult to predict, and can over-extend.
So, it will be interesting to see the action of this current wave, and in particular what happens next. The two directions are clearly opposing, one saying we could go up to 11.7k to test that peak, the other saying BTC could go to 6.8k or lower.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions on this information. For educational purposes only.
Woah ohhh... "It's the final count-down!" -- thanks for the great TA as ever man!
MAGICMARK
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Everyone ... just one word of caution ... the purple line above is based on the "expected" targets in my opinion ... but it can bounce at anytime. I am using a trailing stop now on my short position, with a healthy distance so only a real bounce can take me out. Wave 3 can end anywhere between here and 7.75k in my humble opinion ... so be very aware of what's a real bounce and what isn't. What I'm use to seeing on a real bounce is a long wick down, as many longs get liquidated, with a quick bounce of 200 points or more, and the candle closing with that long wick down. The whales may start playing games to take out stops up and down, so be careful. Don't be greedy either ... many of us, including me, burned by greed. Clear your mind, set your goals, and take your profits, and be happy with life. Nailing the absolute top and bottom is like winning the lottery ... so the odds aren't in your favor. Just some personal advice ...
As usual, do not make financial decisions on this information. For educational purposes only.