BTCUSD update: After retracing to the swing low of 5365, price appears poised to retest 6k again, but what to expect from here? I wrote in my previous BTC report that this market has more bearish signs in light of the Elliott Wave count, but after this bullish swing, the count may be thrown into question. Is this market nearing the peak of Wave B of 4? Or is this Wave 1 of 5?
At the moment, price is sitting within the 5863 to 6009 minor resistance zone which is the .618 area of the recent bearish swing. IF price sells off from here, it will be establishing a lower high which is a sign of weakness. Lower highs often lead to lower lows, which in this case would unfold as the possible C Wave which can retest the 5365 low, or even the 5169 support (.382 of recent bullish structure). Keep in mind it is possible for B Waves to establish a higher high which would lead to a large head and shoulders formation in the current environment. Either way the current levels are too risky to establish any new swing trade longs.
What IF price does not make a new low on the next retrace? What IF instead, it makes a higher low somewhere within the 5603 to 5500 area which happens to be the .618 of the most recent bullish swing? This scenario will more likely lead to an alternate count where the current bullish swing would be Wave 1 of 5 (instead of B of 4). The bottom of the higher low would be Wave 2 which would open the possibility of an upcoming Wave 3 which we know is never the shortest wave. This scenario would reveal a stronger possibility of the market working its way up to Wave 5 of 5 which can take price into the 6500 area. This count all depends on how price behaves upon the retest of the 5603 area. If it falls through, then it is safe to say that the bearish C Wave scenario is in play.
In summary, the market must decide which path it is going to choose, and the best we can do is be prepared for both scenarios. In the short term, it is more important to be flexible and have no opinions, especially if you are shorting or day trading because things change so quickly in these markets. Using Elliott Wave along with projected support and resistance levels can at least narrow the possible outcomes to a more manageable number and offer some sense of short term direction. And right now, the short term looks more bearish. As far as swing trades go, I am avoiding this market until the next support is tested and then evaluate from there.
Agree completely and the fact the rumor of amazon taking bitcoin is playing right into it. Great article MarC
nadineb
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@goldbug1, I saw in a chat room that Amazon will not be accepting bitcoin... although, hear say is not reliable, the answer may already be out there if we dig a little deeper?
uncomfortablepants
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@goldbug1, yeah, setting up to either take a lunge at a new ATH or be a great short opportunity if it breaks below the triangle its in since the 5966 high and below 5850 or so.
goldbug1
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@uncomfortablepants, I couldn't agree with @MarcPMarkets more, this is not a time to be trading BTC either way. There are too many variables and we are either in an extended top or the start of a new cycle. As this is the difficult to determine it is best to let the market play out and look for better setups or opportunities as they arise. Marc's level head in these times, and his expertise in chart identification is why I follow him. It's better to sit on the sideline then force a trade.
MarcPMarkets
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@goldbug1, thanks for the compliment. Yeah it tough to open swing trades at these levels.
Great commentary, very much appreciated - I'm so pleased to have discovered this forum with yourself, Sean Vengan and Goldbug helping a newcomer like me so much.
Thanks again!
MarcPMarkets
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@Tbox, you're welcome. Glad you find my analysis helpful.
ChriSpag
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Great article, helped me a lot !!!!
MarcPMarkets
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@ChriSpag, great, I am glad you found my analysis helpful.