tl;dr
- BTC currently sitting above range high after a huge spike
- the 2 week range had the opportunity to break down and it didn't happen
- instead we got rejected by the range low and went all the way through range high
- this suggests to me that at least one more macro leg is possible for BTC
- first target are the highs at $30k
- optimistic target is $32.5k
BTC has been trading in a sideways range for the past two weeks, between $26k and $28k. This range was formed after a sharp drop from the recent swing high of $31k. At first, I expected BTC to continue its downtrend and break below the range low of $26k, which would have opened the door for more selling pressure and lower targets.
However, this scenario did not materialize. Instead, BTC bounced off the range low on, and surged above the range high of $27.5k. This was a huge spike that caught many bears off guard and triggered a short squeeze. The volume and momentum behind this move were impressive and indicated a strong bullish reversal.
This price action suggests to me that BTC has completed its correction and is ready for another leg up in its medium-term uptrend. The breakout above the range high has invalidated the bearish case for now. The next target for BTC is to retest the previous highs at $30k, which is also a psychological resistance level. If BTC can break above $30k with conviction, it could extend its rally to a new swing high of $32.5k, which is based on a significant weekly high that occured during BTCs downtrend in May 2023.
Additional notes:
I would like to explain why I changed my trading strategy from shorting to going long on BTC. Yesterday was a critical moment for the bearish trend, but it failed to push the price down. I enjoy trading at the extremes of ranges and inflection points, because they offer clear invalidation levels and quick results (win or loss).
- BTC currently sitting above range high after a huge spike
- the 2 week range had the opportunity to break down and it didn't happen
- instead we got rejected by the range low and went all the way through range high
- this suggests to me that at least one more macro leg is possible for BTC
- first target are the highs at $30k
- optimistic target is $32.5k
BTC has been trading in a sideways range for the past two weeks, between $26k and $28k. This range was formed after a sharp drop from the recent swing high of $31k. At first, I expected BTC to continue its downtrend and break below the range low of $26k, which would have opened the door for more selling pressure and lower targets.
However, this scenario did not materialize. Instead, BTC bounced off the range low on, and surged above the range high of $27.5k. This was a huge spike that caught many bears off guard and triggered a short squeeze. The volume and momentum behind this move were impressive and indicated a strong bullish reversal.
This price action suggests to me that BTC has completed its correction and is ready for another leg up in its medium-term uptrend. The breakout above the range high has invalidated the bearish case for now. The next target for BTC is to retest the previous highs at $30k, which is also a psychological resistance level. If BTC can break above $30k with conviction, it could extend its rally to a new swing high of $32.5k, which is based on a significant weekly high that occured during BTCs downtrend in May 2023.
Additional notes:
I would like to explain why I changed my trading strategy from shorting to going long on BTC. Yesterday was a critical moment for the bearish trend, but it failed to push the price down. I enjoy trading at the extremes of ranges and inflection points, because they offer clear invalidation levels and quick results (win or loss).