Bitcoin is still struggling beneath a clear descending trendline, and the latest recovery has once again failed around the $83,600–$84,300 resistance area. Price is also trading below both short-term EMAs, which keeps the immediate structure tilted toward sellers.
The two recent lows may resemble a double bottom, but that pattern is not enough on its own. A double bottom normally needs a convincing break of the neckline before the bullish reversal is confirmed.
A small rebound back into $83,500–$84,200 could therefore become another test of resistance. If sellers defend that area, the next move could extend toward approximately $82,000, matching the projected target on the chart.
Macro context
The broader environment still gives some support to this bearish scenario. U.S. Treasury yields remain extremely elevated, with the 10-year recently around 5.2%, while the dollar has strengthened significantly through September. Higher yields and a firmer USD generally tighten financial conditions for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Later today, markets also face Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with Forex Factory showing a 0.3% monthly forecast versus 0.2% previously. A hotter result could reinforce rate concerns and increase volatility across BTC and other risk assets.
Trade idea
Bias: Bearish
Resistance: $83,500–$84,300
Main target: $82,003
Invalidation: Sustained H1 breakout above roughly $84,300–$84,500
The two recent lows may resemble a double bottom, but that pattern is not enough on its own. A double bottom normally needs a convincing break of the neckline before the bullish reversal is confirmed.
A small rebound back into $83,500–$84,200 could therefore become another test of resistance. If sellers defend that area, the next move could extend toward approximately $82,000, matching the projected target on the chart.
Macro context
The broader environment still gives some support to this bearish scenario. U.S. Treasury yields remain extremely elevated, with the 10-year recently around 5.2%, while the dollar has strengthened significantly through September. Higher yields and a firmer USD generally tighten financial conditions for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Later today, markets also face Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with Forex Factory showing a 0.3% monthly forecast versus 0.2% previously. A hotter result could reinforce rate concerns and increase volatility across BTC and other risk assets.
Trade idea
Bias: Bearish
Resistance: $83,500–$84,300
Main target: $82,003
Invalidation: Sustained H1 breakout above roughly $84,300–$84,500
Trade active
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Join our group and unlock real-time Forex, gold, and crypto signals — sharp insights, fast alerts, and opportunities you don’t want to miss.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.