1. The current structure looks very similar to the accumulation structure formed in May-August 2021.
2. The distribution schematic was clear in May, but this time (in November) it was not as clear and seemed like a pullback.
3. Retailers are bearish now since the price broke down below 200MA and a death cross is nearing. This is conventional thinking. Retailers always look to capitulate after the death cross. But the last time, the death cross happened with a similar structure, the price pumped and created a new ATH.
4. In June 2021, the low at the time of the death cross was the low of the accumulation structure. If the same thing gets repeated, we may create a bottom near 39-40k and shoot up from there.
5. If we look at the Market profile and TPO chart, there are a lot of NPOC on the upside. Also, there is a single print at 44825-45475, which may get filled soon.
6. If we see the fixed range volume profile from January 2021, we can clearly see 3 prominent high-value nodes and POC at 47k. If you don't know what a HVN is, just understand that the price moves from one high-value node to another high-value node. They act as magnets.
7. If we are able to bounce from somewhere near 40k, then we may most probably be heading to 50k before falling back again to the range low. Sustaining above 50k will push the price to ATH.
8. The breakdown of 39-40k level, will push the price back towards 35k and ultimately 30k level.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
great to have a story to price action, it leads one to logical conclusions instead of traders just putting up their charts with an arrow or two without any groundwork. I just followed you, thank you.
@johntradingwick, yeah I only rarely trade (more from lack if skill, although I'm learning). I mostly buy crashes & set buy orders low to accumulate for the long haul