triquista

WHY THIS BITCOIN RETRACE COULD LAST!!!

OKEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether
Hello everybody, first of let me just thank you for the massive support I didn't expect from my first post. This community has surely done it again and I already feel so welcomed from all the positivity here. I will continue keeping my ideas simple and charts so clean so that even the novice would easily comprehend. So please keep support my ideas by LIKING as it motivates me to post more setups in the future. Thanks.

In everyday charting we use many indicators to equip us with the confidence to jump in and avoid getting rekt. Just the simplest of them can lead us to take the most unreal (great) trades we now wish we did. Today we're going to discuss about Price Action (candle closing), Volume (I mean even grandma uses this!) and the good old 21 MA (Moving Average). As powerful as they are, most times you just don't need Moving Averages crossing each other to determine new trends. Or else we could have all been so successful following the recent multiple golden and death crosses.

Many traders believe rather vaguely that when we get the first daily close above the 21 day MA that signals the beginning of an upward movement. Conversely, daily closes below this MA indicate the awakening of the bears. While this concurs to a degree with this analysis, that belief can be squashed by fake outs which are a common occurrence in BTC movements. This is where Price Action comes in. Patience is key here as when the candles start closing on the opposite side of the 21 MA we have to wait for INITIAL TWO consecutive closes to become certain of the trend change. But when to actually enter the trade? We enter at the price of the close of the second candle close or wait for a 2 to 3% retrace if one would want to be more careful. Consequently, when we later get the two consecutive closes on the opposite side of the indicator that's when one would GET OUT! That brings us to the realization that the close of a long is the entry to a short and vice versa.

Although this strategy alone should put you in NICE greens but alas! You must be thinking there must be a way to stretch your realized gains. Turns out there is! And that's when Volume comes in. A very high daily volume close has long been considered as a trend reversal indicator. Therefore, once in a trade and we get a daily volume close at 3X or more the previous week's (7 days) average volume , we don't jump to closing the trade yet. Patience is still key, we wait for the NEXT TWO daily candles to close and that's the price we close trade at. Knowledge of this strategy ought to keep you on the right side of the massive and painful swings BTC players (traders and hodlers) have to face.

So where does this leave us at now? We already had the two initial candles below the 21 MA close on May the 22nd at $9222. This tells us that it would be very hard to close dailies above the range $9200 - 9450 in the coming days. Ideally (BTC? Ideal??), this range acts as an entry to a short position I would hold on for a while. Intermediate term Bearish .



This is NOT financial advice. Please do your own research and understand trading derivatives has high risk.

Comments

Unfortunately i saw your post late and make a mistake to buy long.... But From now i'm following you and i wish you could update us regularly and on time. Thank you.
+1 Reply
triquista douon2010
@douon2010, It's okay man and thanks for your support.
Reply
OMG.

Thank you so much for sharing. I am a novice trader and i really love the way you broke down your analysis, very simple to comprehend. Also, your additional note on volume, price action and MA 21 has no doubt added to my existing knowledge a great deal.
+1 Reply
@drvee6, Appreciate so much, glad to hear you gained something from this :)
Reply
I broke it down as well, here is my markup
+1 Reply
triquista transparent-fx
@transparent-fx, I appreciate you commenting here so much :)
Reply
Miners adjusting to the new reward system while awaiting for more powerful rigs together with the new fee structure just like 2016 could go in hand with this analysis. Lets wait and see how it plays.
+1 Reply
triquista Encivic
@Encivic, Good point there.
Reply
Great stuff!! Thanks⚡️
+1 Reply
triquista unitejb
@unitejb, Thanks for your support.
+1 Reply
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