'You Rise, Only to Fall!' Elliotical Approach to BTCUSDT.

MarketsMechanic Updated   
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Hello Traders!

"Do you see the beauty of it? The Inevitability? You rise, only to fall!"

As Ultron has pointed out, at times, markets rise, only to fall, what we traders call a 'retracement'. The bullish retracement of BTC is almost at its fag end.

1. We'll begin from the All-Time-High of about $69000. From there, we see the first 5-wave impulse down and then an ABC correction. That means, we have clear Waves 1 and 2.

2. Again, we see a 5-wave impulse in the form of Wave 3 and then again an ABC correction forming what we thought was Wave 4 (called Wave 4m from now on).

3. There is a wonderful Rule of Alternation given in Elliot Wave theory. Wave 2 and Wave 4 will differ in at least one of the following ways if not all; PRICE, INTERNAL STRUCTURE, and/or TIME. There are a couple of other things as well but these 3 remain prominent.

4. Now, Wave 2 and Wave 4m took almost the same time and also had the same price value. Of course, the internal structures were different and that would have done it, but we didn't see the next 5-wave impulse down as the final fifth wave after 4 clear waves.

5. In such scenarios, we give the market time to unfold. Time is a very important key to market movement. We stay away until we understand what's really going on.

6. The market went further down and made a new low of around 15500 in 3 waves (marked with yellow ABC). The move up breaking the high formed by 4m, confirmed that the correction was still going on. Wave 4m was just Wave A of actual Wave 4.

7. The 3 yellow ABC waves, were Wave B of Wave 4. They also happened to retrace exactly 123.6% of Wave A (4m). This gave us the hint that an irregular flat correction was taking place.

8. What is an Irregular Flat Correction? The image has been attached. Please refer.

9. Wave C, ideally, should not cross 161.8% of Wave A. There can be a scenario of an extra elongation of Wave C but that is very very rare.

10. Coming to the Target Zone now. Wave 5 can be equal to Wave 1 through wave equality. That gives us a target of around 12222. We also have an important support for BTC at that price level. Once Wave 4 is finally complete, a parallel channel drawn through Waves 2, 3, and 4 should give us an approximate target of Wave 5.

11. The invalidation level for this analysis has been shown on the chart. Wave 4 should not enter the price territory of Wave 1. If it does, we'll have to re-analyze. Although, since it's a large C wave, the possibility of a diagonal exists (where Waves 1 and 4 can coincide), it doesn't seem to be in the picture yet.

12. It is expected that the market will break its current high on 25250 once before beginning the impulse down.

Do use proper risk management.
Happy Trading!

Market's Mechanic.

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