Good morning everybody and welcome to my daily analysis of Bitcoin. Today I have the daily time frame pulled up after a pretty boring extended weekend for me (as far as the charts are concerned anyways) We are currently holding at the 8800 level and have found some support upon the .236 fib for now (red line) Things are looking a bit more bearish as time passes. But we do have a lot of support to jump from at the moment so I am still optimistic. The thing is I have learned over the last year that all markets are cyclical in nature and what goes up will come back down eventually. So when you're happy and you know it... Sell.
Looking at this daily time frame any fool can see that it looks like our uptrend is over with. We entered into the consolidation phase of the trend and the only way out is up back into the uptrend or down to the abyss. Thing about it is we have tons of support below us so I do not see a quick drop occurring. It will likely hit every major support during the drop which should give traders many opportunities if you play your cards right that is.
In a down trend is the time I increase my Bitcoin. If we go up I increase my USD profits because my bag gains USD value. If we go down I trade my BTC for USDT or another stable coin and I hold there til the dip subsides. This is a simple yet effective way to trade. I increase my Bitcoin with every successful trade during a downtrend. If you ask me the down trends are just as much of an opportunity as the uptrends are. With that being said I prefer green candles as the crypto community is much happier when the candles are pumping towards the moon.
I threw a "falling wedge" onto the chart and I think if it works out we may just jump up to fill in that gap from the weekend. Wishful thinking on my part??? Perhaps. But this is trading and as long as you mitigate your risks you can go big or go home. Just dont put up more money than you are prepared to lose folks. That is just not smart. As much as I love Bitcoin and I am certain of its success I have to remind all of you that this is still an experiment. It has been a successful experiment so far no doubt about it... But 11 years (approximately) is still like a baby in terms of markets. The stock markets have decades of data to look over which makes it a bit more reliable as far as trading. But the risk/reward ratio is less on the bigger markets as it take a lot of money to get the stock market moving in comparison to Bitcoin which is liquid when compared to alt coins, but not really when you compare to the DOW.
Im not saying to stop trading Bitcoin. I enjoy the big swings. Sure you may lose a few but that is the nature of the game. Win some and lose some. As soon as you learn to mitigate the risk you wont get burned as much. We just experienced the 3rd halving event in Bitcoins short existence and miners are seemingly mining at a loss in a lot of cases now from what I read this weekend. I also read that certain institutions are really buying Bitcoin up at the moment. Perhaps they are doing this in anticipation of the post halving pump many are expecting. I cant tell you if its even true that institutions are buying BTC up at the moment. What I can say is we all know how crazy Bitcoin can get and as a trader you need to be prepared for anything. Those bulls can show up without warning sometimes.
If we keep dropping which is likely the short term future then we must look below to the support I have pulled up onto the chart. Just looking at the daily we have the daily 50 MA and the daily 200 MA down below that should provide some support in the event of a plunge. We also have the daily cloud below us at the moment so a straight up drop into the abyss is unlikely. But like I told you earlier... Be prepared for anything. Sometimes these drops are violent and we all know how fast they can show up. If we want to flip the script and the bulls want to play we really need to break back to 10k minimum. I would really prefer to create a higher high and close a daily above 10500 but that may be me being a bit greedy. Down is the most likely scenario at this time if you ask me... I sure hope the bulls prove me wrong. But then again WTFDIK right????
TLDR: Bears are trying to make their move. Dont sleep on your position. Set a stop loss. Whatever you must do to mitigate any risk you can. Better safe than sorry. I would rather lose out on a pump then take the hit of a big red candle. I may get stopped out occasionally but that is the nature of the beast. You will get another chance to get to the plate and knock the next one out of the park. Patience young padawan...
Looking at this daily time frame any fool can see that it looks like our uptrend is over with. We entered into the consolidation phase of the trend and the only way out is up back into the uptrend or down to the abyss. Thing about it is we have tons of support below us so I do not see a quick drop occurring. It will likely hit every major support during the drop which should give traders many opportunities if you play your cards right that is.
In a down trend is the time I increase my Bitcoin. If we go up I increase my USD profits because my bag gains USD value. If we go down I trade my BTC for USDT or another stable coin and I hold there til the dip subsides. This is a simple yet effective way to trade. I increase my Bitcoin with every successful trade during a downtrend. If you ask me the down trends are just as much of an opportunity as the uptrends are. With that being said I prefer green candles as the crypto community is much happier when the candles are pumping towards the moon.
I threw a "falling wedge" onto the chart and I think if it works out we may just jump up to fill in that gap from the weekend. Wishful thinking on my part??? Perhaps. But this is trading and as long as you mitigate your risks you can go big or go home. Just dont put up more money than you are prepared to lose folks. That is just not smart. As much as I love Bitcoin and I am certain of its success I have to remind all of you that this is still an experiment. It has been a successful experiment so far no doubt about it... But 11 years (approximately) is still like a baby in terms of markets. The stock markets have decades of data to look over which makes it a bit more reliable as far as trading. But the risk/reward ratio is less on the bigger markets as it take a lot of money to get the stock market moving in comparison to Bitcoin which is liquid when compared to alt coins, but not really when you compare to the DOW.
Im not saying to stop trading Bitcoin. I enjoy the big swings. Sure you may lose a few but that is the nature of the game. Win some and lose some. As soon as you learn to mitigate the risk you wont get burned as much. We just experienced the 3rd halving event in Bitcoins short existence and miners are seemingly mining at a loss in a lot of cases now from what I read this weekend. I also read that certain institutions are really buying Bitcoin up at the moment. Perhaps they are doing this in anticipation of the post halving pump many are expecting. I cant tell you if its even true that institutions are buying BTC up at the moment. What I can say is we all know how crazy Bitcoin can get and as a trader you need to be prepared for anything. Those bulls can show up without warning sometimes.
If we keep dropping which is likely the short term future then we must look below to the support I have pulled up onto the chart. Just looking at the daily we have the daily 50 MA and the daily 200 MA down below that should provide some support in the event of a plunge. We also have the daily cloud below us at the moment so a straight up drop into the abyss is unlikely. But like I told you earlier... Be prepared for anything. Sometimes these drops are violent and we all know how fast they can show up. If we want to flip the script and the bulls want to play we really need to break back to 10k minimum. I would really prefer to create a higher high and close a daily above 10500 but that may be me being a bit greedy. Down is the most likely scenario at this time if you ask me... I sure hope the bulls prove me wrong. But then again WTFDIK right????
TLDR: Bears are trying to make their move. Dont sleep on your position. Set a stop loss. Whatever you must do to mitigate any risk you can. Better safe than sorry. I would rather lose out on a pump then take the hit of a big red candle. I may get stopped out occasionally but that is the nature of the beast. You will get another chance to get to the plate and knock the next one out of the park. Patience young padawan...