This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here.
From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports." "The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada." zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-24/trump-announces-20-tariff-canadian-softwood-lumber-imports To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
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We can get back in on this one.
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Terrible to see it hit the stop, but well, at least we correctly figured out it was the bottom and a huge surge would occur.
What do you think about housing bubble starting to blow up in Canada? I wouldn't say it is the best time to be long the looney right now exactly because of it :p
IvanLabrie
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@zhsloe, yes, sentiment is extremely negative but I see oil rallying HARD from here. So, the CAD should follow suit. If hedge funds get squeezed out of shorts it will rally big time.
JRFreeze
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You think this is still long?? I figured it would run inverse to oil prices which I guess have just bottomed..
IvanLabrie
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@RJHumphries, CADUSD long, long Canadian dollar, should correlate oil.