raavigeorgian

Castrol India - 5yr Down Trendline Breakout / 1.5yr Channel BO

Long
NSE:CASTROLIND   CASTROL INDIA
Suggested by @monkmaxims
The stock had been in a down trend since forever (7yrs on monthly chart). Since 2020 crash, the stock was in low volume accumulation
in a parallel channel . Suddenly, the accumulation volumes began to shoot up in November while the price continued to trade in the channel.
Finally, this week it has broken out and how!
Highest weekly volume seen since last year, in the breakout week. The weekly closing candle looks like a decisive candle.
Good fundamentals, likely to do well in the coming weeks/months.

SL: Depending on your risk appetite: Below Weekly BO Candle / Below Daily BO Candle / 50% of Weekly BO candle / Below 20DMA
Short term TGT: After a 10-15%+ vertical move, breakdown of 20MA on Hourly chart (on a daily close basis)

BUY GUIDANCE:
Never ever buy before 3PM. I have been burnt many many times.Try to buy between 3:15 - 3:30PM, later the better.

SELL GUIDANCE:
Selling in Profit:
Sell earlier in the session when the prices are higher, around 11AM.

Selling at SL:
Give your stock a chance to recover by end of session. If it doesn't recover, sell anywhere between 3:00 - 3:30PM.

Note: I reserve the right to be wrong.

DISCLAIMER:
I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.




Comments

@monkmaxims Thank you for putting down the fundamentals in such a concise manner. Cutting out long winded descriptions and putting out only that which is relevant.

Here are some more points worth noting about the technicals:

If one notices, there's a long wick created in the 2nd half today, bringing the price down. Which should be nothing to be worried about.
It probably went down because people don't like to carry positions over the weekend.
If we notice, it closed right at the last pivot high*. *Pivot high is usually the last high (mostly BO attempts) on big volume.
Operators like to play mind games. They will close the stock at the breakout point/last high.
Next day they will test for any supply, if they dont find any supply, they will stage a breakout. If they do find supply, they will attempt the breakout, once the supply dries out.
Alternatively, they might give a shakeout.

Castrol was attempting a Gap up Breakout, which means the momentum is quite high (Gap up breakouts are very rare). So, depending on the NIFTY 's bullishness/bearishness in next couple of days, it might come back to fill the gap and then shoot up dramatically(probably on a 5-10% circuit).

P.S.
Investing has been made out to be such a complex web. But what I have understood is that there are only 3-4 things that make you consistent money. 1. SL 2. Fundamentals 3.Timing the entry 4. Booking profits.
Everything else is meant to deliberately confuse the retail investor, create doubt, make him buy higher and sell in panic at a loss.
+5 Reply
drdc11 raavigeorgian
@raavigeorgian, hi.. Loved ur analysis.. What do u mean supply & if it dries out? Can u explain lil thank u
+1 Reply
@drdc11, Supply is essentially selling. (Different chartists use different terms, My knowledge is anchored mostly around Wyckoff). Drying out means exhausting of supply. If a stock's price remains stable with very little volume trading over a couple of sessions or more, it means the operator is checking if there are any more sellers/supply left. This gets confirmed by a special type of bar/bars called (supply) test bars or springs. These bars are usually very low volume (lower than the previous 10 volume bars). Once the test is done near a breakout point, the operator gets ready to mark up the price and we see the stock shoot up in the next few sessions.
+1 Reply
drdc11 raavigeorgian
@raavigeorgian, thank you so much, such wonderful explanation.. Wil observe movement in coming week
+1 Reply
@drdc11, no problem.
Reply
monkmaxims raavigeorgian
@raavigeorgian, just brilliant !!! you are my favorite, man ! you have shared so much more whenever we chatted. its cool to glimpse your thought process in depth ! hope many will view your charts, posts and benefit from it !
+3 Reply
raavigeorgian monkmaxims
@monkmaxims, Thanks. This appreciation gets me going.
+4 Reply
monkmaxims raavigeorgian
@raavigeorgian, from your post above -" .....shoot up dramatically(probably on a 5-10% circuit)"

Happened ! That was amazing !!!
Reply
raavigeorgian monkmaxims
@monkmaxims, Thanks man!
Reply
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