CrudeOil - Stretching in a final wave up before collapse to 26$

AbhishekHSinghCMT Updated   
NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
In Dec1998 when crudeoil was trading at 7$ -no one even thought that it will travel to 147$ from 50$ base. The explosive rally from 50$ to 147$ was in wave-5 & It behaved exactly as bookish structure. In commodities wave -5 is 80-90% time bigger than wave-1 & wave-3- which was the excellent case for the oil between Jan2007 & July 2008 5th wave scenario.

Always after an extended wave which was wave -5 here -it dropped suddenly & took market bulls for a ride- what a roller coaster ride - so, never forget to carry your pills, which can help you in controling your pukish behaviour so I always suggest work on risk management more as compared to trading strategy as It is important to know where you are wrong & you can cut your losses asap .

Current Scenario
Moving in wave 4 which can complete in the zone 63-65$ & could be last stretch before it collapse for 26$ & wave-5 within wave-C

Trading Strategy

Short Term Scenario- Against 47$ as support or putting stops below 47$- once oil starts moving above 50$-we can look for the upside stretch of 63-65$.

Long Term Scenario- Collapse which could turn out to be true in few months or later, but cannot be skipped- kissing the zone 25$ to 30$ shall be minimum distance it travels downside to finish the structure & start a new bullish cycle for 100-115$ zone as the next target zone.

Trade active: 17:31 Hrs 24th March2017

Day Low@22nd March2017 - 47.01$

Got a push exactly above 47$ as per short term trading strategy mentioned above.

Against 47$ or stops below 47$ -we shall for a wave upside. In current Scenario moving above 48.50$ or in the range 47.25-47.75 with stops below 47$ can look for an upside move.

Trade active: 11:07 Hrs 29th March2017

Last Price@48.55

47$ - gave couple of attempts to buy or take long positions

Trade active: 20:33Hrs 29th March2017

Last Price@49.11$

On MCX Crude catches fire - hope it ignites more
Trade active: 08:42 Hrs 30th March2017

Good Morning All!

It was an exciting session yesterday as crudeoil pushed up to a new highs@49.50$ & impulsive move was even witnessed in local commodity Indian Exchange- MCX

It has given a tripple bottom of 47$ - Critical zone for us- Holding that if one gets opportunity to buy in the zone 48.25-48.50 zone if we get retracement next shall be an opportunity to buy for next leg upside.
Trade active: 18:30 Hrs 16th April2017

Last Price@52.91

Going below 52.70- Looking to sell with the new update. I will close this idea if 47$ is taken out downside with 53.77$ intact on the upside.
Trade active: 10:40 Hrs 5th May2017

Last price@44.15$

First Oil rallied from 47$ to 53.75$ -13% Jump

Trade active: 10:41 Hrs 5th May2017

Last Price@44.15$

Fall below 52.70$ from Head & Shoulder Pattern - Oil returned back -infact below 47$ -indicating about its bearish trend next

Trade active: 10:43 Hrs 5th May2017

Last Price@44.15$

Current Oil Picture

Trade active: 07:20 Hrs 26th Oct2017

Good Morning!

Holding the base at 42$ in last 7 months & doing sideways move has stronger possibility of moving closer to 63-65$ as shown in main chart above.
Trade active: 08:03 Hrs 14th Jan2018

Last Price@64.30

Today is an auspicious day for all Indians as our deity Sun moves into Capricorn - It marks the first day of Sun's transit into the Makara (Capricorn), marking the end of the month with the winter solstice and the start of longer days.
We Indians celebrate this as "Makara Sankrati". So, wishing all of you happy Makara Sankrati from India.

CrudeOil - As expected from 42$ base for 63-65$ Range - it made recent high at 64.77$ which is approx 45-50% jump- An amazing journey so far. Next we are watching for weakness in this zone & expecting final leg downside to 20-25$ range but not confirmed yet. Take care & Have a nice Sunday.

Trade active: 20:17 Hrs 30th Jan2018

Last Price@64.35

Started getting signs of top@66.66 - That could be important top if holds on upside & we will be early in 5th wave downside - Can this be a start of the final collapse

Do support -If you are getting help from the outlook.

Trade active: 07:45 Hrs 14th Feb2018

Last Price@59.21

Good Morning!

We saw impulsive fall from 64-66$ to 58$ lows. Halting just above 58$ - can be looked as next support so we book partial profits & take next sell only below 58$

Trade active: 10:00 Hrs 15th Feb2018

Last Price@61.39 $

What a short term bounce holding above 58$ as support - Travels to 61.37$

Trade active: 09:00 Hrs 19th Feb2018

Last Price@62.43$

The Fall 66.66 to 58$ is nearly retraced 50% by recent high@62.45-62.50 -
Can be looked as resistance zone -considering historical highs of 62.58$ on 5th May2015 has a confluence with current levels so we will book profits in short term buy call & shall wait for markets to make its move first.

Further going below 60-75-60.85$ range shall be the 2nd clue that rise from 58$ to 62.50 is all done & we shall look for next leg downside.

Trade active: 15:05 Hrs 21st Feb2018

Last Price@61.17

Correction continues until it dips below 60.75 -60.85 zone as suggested earlier.

Holding 60.75 - 60.85 which was the 2nd clue that correction from 58 to 62.50$ is done and bouncing from 60.92$ suggest that we could go higher in choppy correction upside for target 63.50-64$

Trade active: 22:22 Hrs 22nd Feb2018

Last Price@62.70

Turns upside exactly from 60.75 as expected for 63.50-64$ Target range

Trade active: 14:55 Hrs 23rd Feb2018

Last Price@62.52$

Holding above 62$ or dipping below 62$ & bouncing back above 62$ - we shall look for higher upside 63+ in the zone 63.50-64$

Trade active: 23:15 Hrs 23rd Feb2018

Last Price@63.60

Day High@63.73$ completes 3$ push from 60.75$ - Happy Weekend. Likely we start fresh next week any move below 62.50 & later 60.75 - shall put Oil into weak zone.

Trade active: 17:47 Hrs 26th Feb2018

Last Price@63.35$

We will look for a bounce & sell as close to 63.90 Highs which is key level of resistance

No selling above 63.90 $- in that case we will exit & wait for another opportunity next time.

Trade active: 18:37 Hrs 27th Feb2018

Last Price@63.77

Holding above 63.50$ - we will look for a push upside to 65.15-65.25$ range where it face next resistance.

Trade active: 00:07 Hrs 17th March 2018

Last Price@62.50

Holding In the range 61-62 $ - expecting a higher push upside for 63.50-64 + next week.

Trade active: 15:54 Hrs 21st March 2018

Last Price@63.90$

Nice to see to move upside as expected in 63.50 -64$ + range

Trade active: 22:45 Hrs 21st March 2018

Last Price@65

Awesome - Crude jumps to 65.26$ as expected last week. Sooner or later - crude starts its downside move which should likely take the same below 58$ with important resistance on upside as 66$.

Trade active: 19:11 Hrs 22nd March 2018

Last Price@64.50$

Expected fall looks like started from 65.74$

Trade active: 18:10 Hrs 23rd March 2018

Last Price@64.80

It was nice fall from 65.74$ to 64.10$ - Doing sideways - we take next sell on the bounce close to 65.74$ -possibly in the range 65.30- 65.65 -Holding below 65.75$ or Once it starts falling below 64.10$ - which ever condition happens first.

Have a nice weekend.
Trade active: 20:17 Hrs 26th March 2018

Last Price@65.55

Take Next Sell below 65.20 or sell close to top between 66.00 - 66.25 zone

Trade active: 19:37 Hrs 27th March 2018

Last Price@65.52$

Falling from top 66.00 -66.25 as expected to sell in last update - Made actual high 66.40's & the fall started -went to 65.25-65.30 zone - shall spend some time & going below 65.00 $ next will take for more on downside.

Trade active: 11:01 Hrs 8th April 2018

Last Price@61.95

Falling from 66.40 $ looks to halt in 61.50 - 61.75 zone.

Looking for a support in 61.50 - 61.75 zone - Any move above 62$ -shall push Oil to 63.70 - 64.20 $ Range - later any push above 64.20 can extend upto 65.20 - 65.40 $ range.
Facing resistance in the zone mentioned above can give opportunity to sell later.

Wish You Happy Trading Week

Trade active: 22:08 Hrs 9th April 2018

Last Price@63.25 $

As expected push above 62$ for 63.70-64.20$ range - It touched close to that zone@63.60$ - Next if it sustains below 63.50$ then can slip to 62.50-62.75$ range -where it will search for support. 62$ lows shall be critical support later - if it holds & spends time between 62.50 - 62.75 then we can expect upside push again later.
Take Care
Trade active: 21:17 Hrs 10th April 2018

Last Price@65.30

As updated on 8th April 2018 - any push above 64.20 can take it to highs of 65.25-65.40 $ range - so we are at 65.30$

There is a channel next if 65.20-65.40 offers resistance then we can see a fall else we wait outside - No trades above 65.50 $

Trade active: 17:49 Hrs 11th April 2018

Last Price@66.17

I have suggested that we wait fr channel to offer resistance for us think that oil can move downside & also warned that we should not take any trades above 65.50

66.41 $ is critical level - we need oil to fall first if at all this is a start of downside move- any move above 66.41 - we need to come back again to see what it has been unfolding. Have patience!
Trade active: 05:42 Hrs 19th June 2018

Last Price@65.56 $

Good Morning from India

Weekly chart

Turning just below 74.95$ from 72.83$ has kept our hope alive & our count as well.
Falling Impulsively from 72.83$ was another clue that oil shall be heading south holding 74.95$ as critical level & we look for 25$ handle in coming 6-9 months.

8 Hour Chart

Fall from 67.16$ to just below 64$ handle again impulsive - if correct -holding 67.16$ as upside resistance we shall look for 60-60.15$ support range
Trade active: 20:52 Hrs 27th June 2018

Last Price@72.51

We had double top@72.83 - I shall remember this for lifetime if crude falls from current high of 72.83 else we look to sell close from but below 75$ - as trouble point
Going above 75$ - This post / idea -I shall close but my outlook shall not change as I am extremely bearish on CrudeOil first- for 25$ in 6-9 months next. Gold Jumps Upside & fall after going above 1300$ range later

Trade active: 16:23 Hrs 16th July 2018

Last Price@69.89

It is violation if Wave 4 goes above Wave 1 - Crude Turning close from 75$ has kept our hope alive.

Trade active: 18:51 Hrs 19th July 2018

Last Price@68.72 $

June High of 67$ has provide support to recent fall of Oil from 75$ to 67$ - Holding 67$ as minor support for next few days / week - Oil can be looked for upside push to 71.50$ to 72.50$ Range where we will check for resistance zone. If Oil faces resistance in that zone - do take the opportunity of selling below 72$ for lower targets 67$ - 61$ - 58$.

Have a nice week ahead.

Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - TradingView India

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